Serbia takes aim at investment grade rating from S&P by end-2024

Serbia takes aim at investment grade rating from S&P by end-2024
Earlier this month, S&P upgraded its outlook on Serbia to positive from stable, maintaining the country's 'BB+/B' ratings. / bne IntelliNews
By bne IntelliNews April 23, 2024

Serbia is hopeful that S&P Global Ratings will elevate its current 'BB+/B' long- and short-term foreign and local currency sovereign credit ratings to an investment grade later this year, said Finance Minister Sinisa Mali on April 22.

"Serbia has changed and they [international financial institutions] saw it. We also want that formal seal of the largest rating agencies. We are not giving up on our reform agenda, and the IMF has approved the extension of the arrangement for another two years because there is still more that we want to do for Serbia," Mali said following a three-day working visit to Washington, a ministry statement said.

Mali, a deputy leader of the ruling Serbian Progressive Party (SNS), spoke of the positive feedback received during the spring session of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank, where Serbia was lauded as a model for economic management amidst crisis conditions.

"During the spring session of the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank, our delegation received praise that Serbia is a shining example of how the economy should be managed in difficult world conditions," Mali stated during his appearance on Serbian Radio and Television (RTS).

He added: "This year or the next, we expect to receive a formal investment rating." 

Mali highlighted the resilience of Serbia's economy amid global challenges, citing a growth rate of 2.5% last year and 5.9% in February this year, supported by growth across all sectors.

Earlier this month, S&P upgraded its outlook on Serbia to positive from stable, maintaining the country's 'BB+/B' ratings. The ratings agency projects Serbia's economic growth to accelerate to 3.3% in 2024 and to average 3.8% over 2025-2027.

However, Serbia's current BB+/B ratings are still classified as non-investment grade or speculative, commonly referred to as junk. 

S&P said that an upgrade could be considered in the next 12 months if Serbia's external position improves beyond expectations, driven by stronger exports or net foreign direct investment inflows. Additionally, stronger fiscal performance leading to lower net government debt could also contribute to a potential upgrade.

According to the Serbian central bank, international investors have expressed confidence in Serbia's economic policies, with some stating that obtaining an investment grade rating is just a matter of time. Representatives of a major investment fund identified Serbia as one of the three key markets on their radar, further signalling positive sentiment towards the country's economic prospects.

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