Russia held important municipal and regional elections on September 10 that are a wet run for the 2018 presidential elections. The Kremlin-backed United Russia swept the board in the 16 regional mandates that were up for grabs, but the elections can be considered a defeat for the Kremlin as they were marred by a record low turnout.

As expected, most of the United Russia candidates took 70-80% of the vote. However, opposition candidates won in eight regions, including Ilya Yashin, the leader of the democratic liberal political alliance of opposition parties, Parnassus, who took the Krasnoselsky district of Moscow. 

"The results of the elections in Krasnoselsky: Solidarity seven mandates, United Russia 3 mandates…Complete defeat of United Russia," Yashin wrote on Twitter.

Across the country, however, the Communist Party was in second place with 14.9% of the overall vote, and Vladimir Zhirinovsky’s pro-Putin Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR) came in third with 12.45%.

The Kremlin has taken a slightly more liberal stance on allowing the opposition to compete in elections and hold office, following the December 2011 mass demonstrations that centred on Bolotnaya Square, across the river from the Kremlin in central Moscow.

However, it clearly doesn't feel threatened as the opposition movement has ripped itself apart with infighting amongst the leaders. Parnassus has asked former prime minister and alliance leader Mikhail Kasyanov to quit, blaming him for the crushing defeat the party suffered at the polls in the September 18 general election last year, where it scored less than 1%.

The authorities are afraid if they are too heavy handed in barring the opposition then it could provoke a much more serious political crisis that could radicalise the population. The authorities are playing a delicate game of allowing the disaffected to blow off some steam, without giving the movement enough room to gather any real momentum.

The price the Kremlin has paid for these tactics is widespread and growing disillusionment with the political process. Voters are increasingly convinced that their votes don't count for anything so they simply don't show up to vote. The irony is that the boycott of apathy is one of the most effective ways to undermine President Vladimir Putin’s legitimacy.

Eight out ten (80%) Russians expect Putin to run for president in 2018, according to a survey by the Public Opinion Foundation in May, and only 9% believe he will stand down. In the average Russian’s mind a Putin victory in 2018 is a forgone conclusion.

The Kremlin had been planning a “70/70” presidential election, where 70% of the population vote for Putin as president and there is a 70% turnout. While the former goal is not unrealistic – Putin’s personal popularity went up by a couple more notches at the start of September to 84% — the latter goal is a pipedream. And the regional elections have underscored the point.

In Moscow, the turnout was 14.8%, the city's election committee announced on September 11. Numbers for all regions were not yet in by the early afternoon of September 11, but the regions which have reported turnout figures had little to boast about, ranging from 25% in Novgorod region and 27% in Samara region to 57% in Tyumen region.

All 16 of the incumbent governors representing United Russia were re-elected, including Artur Parfenchikov in Karelia (61.34% of the vote), Anton Alikhanov in Kaliningrad exclave (81.06%) and Andrei Nikitin in Novgorod region (68.01%).

Similarly, United Russia celebrated a landslide victory in the Moscow municipal election, getting 76%, with the opposition party Yabloko taking in 11.72%.

The importance of the vote was underscored by the fact that Putin and Russian Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev turned out to vote. This is the first time that Putin has voted in the municipal election. Putin voted on site No. 2151, which is located in the building of the Russian Academy of Sciences. Last year, when the State Duma deputies were elected, Putin voted on the same site.

The poor turnout will have the Kremlin worried. It has been replying on regional governors to get the vote out and Putin has sacked and replaced many governors since his re-election in 2012, which highlighted where the weaknesses were. An anti-corruption campaign has also played a role in pruning governors as many were caught in sting operations and forced to resign or were arrested.