Turkish November foreign trade deficit rises 15.3% y/y

By bne IntelliNews December 31, 2014

Turkey’s foreign trade deficit rose more than expected 15.3% y/y to $8.3bn in November as exports plunged and gold imports surged, data of the statistics office TUIK showed on December 31. The markets had expected a foreign trade deficit of $7.8bn. The 15.3% rise in deficit is the biggest y/y recorded this year.

Exports fell 7.5% y/y to $13.1bn in November, due to sluggish recovery in the European economy. Exports to the EU dropped 8.3% y/y to $5.7bn. The EU’s share in Turkey’s total exported was down to 43.7% from 44.1% a year ago. Sales of goods to Germany were down 7.8% y/y while exports to Iraq, the UK and Russia fell 22.3% y/y, 5.3% y/y, and 23% y/y, respectively. Exports to the Middle East (23.7% share in total) dropped 4.2% y/y in November. On a seasonally & calendar adjusted basis, exports fell 3.3% m/m.

Imports rose 0.2% y/y to $21.45bn in November. The 106.3% y/y increase in precious metals (mostly gold) to $2.1bn is especially striking while gold exports rose 33.9% y/y to $626mn. Consumer goods imports were down 13.5% y/y but intermediate goods imports showed a 4.1% y/y increase while capital goods imports fell 5.1% y/y. According to data of TUIK, Turkey paid $4.5bn for energy imports, representing a 6.3% y/y decline. In the first ten moths of the year, the country’s energy bill fell 0.3% y/y to $50.5bn. On a seasonally & calendar adjusted basis, imports rose 10% m/m in November after increasing 0.8% m/m in October.

Turkey’s foreign trade deficit narrowed 15.5% y/y to $75.97bn in January-November. Exports rose 4.2% y/y to $144.5bn while imports fell 3.5% y/y to $220.5bn.

The government foresees a foreign deficit of $83.5bn for 2014, down from $99.86bn last year.

Turkey's Foreign Trade
  Exports y/y Imports y/y Deficit y/y
  (USD bn) (%) (USD bn) (%) (USD bn) (%)
2007 107.3 25.4 170.1 21.8 -62.8 16.2
2008 132.0 23.1 202.0 18.8 -69.9 11.4
2009 102.1 -22.6 140.9 -30.2 -38.8 -44.5
2010 113.9 11.5 185.5 31.7 -71.7 84.8
2011 134.9 18.5 240.8 29.8 -105.9 47.8
2012 152.5 13.0 236.5 -1.8 -84.1 -20.6
2013 151.9 -0.4 251.7 6.4 -99.8 18.7
Jan-14 12.5 8.6 19.3 2.6 -6.8 -6.8
Jan-Jul 93.5 6.1 139.6 -6.2 -46.1 -24.0
Jan-Aug 104.9 5.7 159.1 -4.7 -54.2 -20.0
Jan-Sep 118.5 5.5 179.7 -4.2 -61.1 -18.8
Jan-Oct 131.4 5.6 199.0 -3.9 -67.6 -18.2
Jan-Nov 144.5 4.2 220.5 -3.5 -76.0 -15.5
Source: tuik

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