Turkish industrial output growth slows to 2.4% y/y in October

By bne IntelliNews December 8, 2014

The calendar-adjusted industrial production rose 2.4% y/y in October, down from 2.5% y/y increase reported in the previous month. The markets had expected an output increase of 3.7% y/y.

On a calendar & seasonally adjusted basis, industrial production fell 1.8% m/m after rising 2.1% m/m in September, data of the statistics office, TUIK, showed on December 8. This was a larger decline compared to what economists had expected (market consensus: 1.05% m/m decline). We calculated that the unadjusted industrial production index rose 4.4% y/y in October (market consensus forecast: 5% y/y increase) after showing a 4.5% y/y increase in the previous month. We also calculated that on a calendar-adjusted basis the average production increase in Q3 was 3.8% y/y, up from the average increase of 3.2% y/y in Q2 but slower than the 5.3% y/y average increase in the first quarter. Last year, industrial output rose 3.4% y/y, up from the 2.5% y/y increase recorded in 2012.

The calendar-adjusted output growth in the intermediate goods industry slowed to 0.9% y/y in October from 1% y/y in September while TUIK data showed a pick-up in activity in the durable consumer goods sector where output growth advanced to 4.5% y/y from 2.1% y/y. Output growth in manufacturing quickened to 2% y/y from 1.5% and energy output rose 2.4% y/y in October, softer than the 5.9% y/y increase in September. According to TUIK data, output growth in the capital goods manufacturing industry eased to 3.6% y/y from 4.7% y/y.

The latest data by TUIK point to a weaker industrial activity in October compared to the previous month but a recent survey by Markit showed that the activity probably gained momentum. The headline HSBC Turkey Manufacturing PMI rose for the fourth successive month to 52.2 in November. Manufacturing new orders rose for the third month running, growth of new export orders was signalled for the first time in three months, according to the survey by Markit.

Industrial Production by main Industrial Groups (October)    
(%) Calendar Adjusted Seasonally & Calendar Adjusted
  (y/y) (m/m)
Total Industry 2.4 -1.8
Intermediate Goods 0.9 -0.9
Durable Consumer Goods 4.5 -2.7
Non-durable Consumer Goods 3.3 0.4
Energy 2.4 -2.6
Capital Goods 3.6 -5.5
Source: tuik

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