Turkey’s January foreign trade deficit shrinks 38% y/y

By bne IntelliNews February 27, 2015

Turkey’s foreign trade deficit fell by 37.5% y/y to $4.31bn in January, less than the market consensus forecast of $4.6bn, as exports dropped by 0.6% y/y to $12.3bn and imports decreased 13.7% y/y to $16.6bn, the statistics office TUIK said on February 27.

Consumption goods imports were down 11.1% y/y, intermediate goods imports fell 16.4% y/y and capital goods imports exhibited a 1.1% y/y in January, suggesting weak domestic activity but also possibly reflecting the effects of weaker currency.

Calendar-adjusted exports fell 0.3% y/y while calendar & seasonally adjusted exports rose 7.1% m/m in January after edging up 0.1% m/m in the previous month. Calendar adjusted imports were down 11.3% y/y and calendar & seasonally adjusted imports fell 2.9% m/m versus the 8.5% m/m decline in December.

However, the recent depreciation of TRY, apparently, is not helping Turkey. Exports to the EU fell by 3.4% y/y to $5.3bn, sales of goods to Africa were down 18.6% y/y and shipments to the Middle East declined 2.6% y/y in January. The EU’s share in Turkey’s total exports dropped to 42.7% in January from 44% a year ago.

Turkey’s exports to Germany, the largest market for Turkish companies, fell 11.6% y/y, and exports to Iraq, once Turkey’s second largest market, were down 17.7% y/y in January. Iraq is now Turkey’s fourth largest export market with $837mn worth of export volume, after Switzerland ($1.05bn), and the UK ($944mn), data showed.

Exports of precious metals (mostly gold) soared 218% y/y to $1.7bn while precious metals imports fell by 36.5% y/y to $288mn in the month. Turkey paid $3.7bn for energy imports in January, translating into a 24.5% y/y decline.

The government forecasts $173bn exports, $258bn imports and a foreign trade deficit of $85bn this year.

Turkey's Foreign Trade
  Exports y/y Imports y/y Deficit y/y
  ($ bn) (%) ($ bn) (%) ($ bn) (%)
2008 132.0 23.1 202.0 18.8 -69.9 11.4
2009 102.1 -22.6 140.9 -30.2 -38.8 -44.5
2010 113.9 11.5 185.5 31.7 -71.7 84.8
2011 134.9 18.5 240.8 29.8 -105.9 47.8
2012 152.5 13.0 236.5 -1.8 -84.1 -20.6
2013 151.9 -0.4 251.7 6.4 -99.8 18.7
Jan-14 12.4 8.6 19.3 2.6 -6.9 -6.8
Jan-Jul 93.5 6.1 139.6 -6.2 -46.1 -24.0
Jan-Aug 104.9 5.7 159.1 -4.7 -54.2 -20.0
Jan-Sep 118.5 5.5 179.7 -4.2 -61.1 -18.8
Jan-Oct 131.4 5.6 199.0 -3.9 -67.6 -18.2
Jan-Nov 144.5 4.2 220.5 -3.5 -76.0 -15.5
2014 157.7 3.9 242.2 -3.7 -84.5 -15.4
Jan-15 12.3 -0.6 16.6 -13.7 -4.3 -37.5
Source: tuik

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