Turkey’s foreign trade deficit widens 6.5% y/y in July

By bne IntelliNews August 31, 2015

Turkey’s foreign trade deficit increased by 6.5% y/y to $7.03bn in July (market consensus forecast: $7.08bn), the second y/y increase recorded this year after March’s 18.1%.

Data from the statistics office TUIK showed on August 31 that exports fell by 16.2% y/y to $11.18bn, while imports declined by 8.7% y/y to $18.2bn.

On a seasonally and calendar adjusted basis exports increased only 0.1% m/m and imports increased by 3.9% m/m, while on a calendar adjusted basis exports declined by 17.2% y/y and imports were down 12.5% y/y.

Turkey’s exports to the EU fell by 13.8% y/y to $5.2bn and the EU’s share in the country’s overall exports, however, rose to 46.3% in July from 45% a year ago.

Exports to the Middle East (some 21% share in total exports) dropped by 12% y/y in July, while shipments of merchandise goods to Africa (8.9% share in total) declined by 4.5% y/y. Exports to the Americas (7.5% in total) fell by 7.7% y/y in the month.

Reflecting the favourable effects of the decline in oil prices, Turkey’s energy import costs fell by 38.3% y/y to $3.05bn in July and declined by 27% y/y to $23.7bn in January-July.

Exports of precious metals (mostly gold) were down by 45.1% y/y to $291mn, but their imports soared 180y/y to $725mn in July.

The government expects a foreign trade deficit of $85bn at the end of this year. Turkey’s foreign trade deficit declined by 15.3% y/y to $84.6bn last year as exports increased by 3.8% to $158bn and imports fell by 3.8% to  $242bn.

Turkey's Foreign Trade        
  Exports y/y Imports y/y Deficit y/y
  ($ bn) (%) ($ bn) (%) ($ bn) (%)
2008 132.0 23.1 202.0 18.8 -69.9 11.4
2009 102.1 -22.6 140.9 -30.2 -38.8 -44.5
2010 113.9 11.5 185.5 31.7 -71.7 84.8
2011 134.9 18.5 240.8 29.8 -105.9 47.8
2012 152.5 13.0 236.5 -1.8 -84.1 -20.6
2013 151.8 -0.4 251.7 6.4 -99.9 18.8
2014 157.6 3.8 242.2 -3.8 -84.6 -15.3
Jan-15 12.3 -0.7 16.6 -13.7 -4.3 -37.3
Jan-Feb 24.6 -3.4 33.6 -10.6 -9.0 -25.7
Q1 37.1 -7.5 52.3 -9.0 -15.2 -12.5
Jan-Apr 50.5 -5.7 70.7 -9.5 -20.2 -18.0
Jan-May 61.6 -8.4 88.5 -10.6 -27.0 -15.2
H1 73.5 -8.2 106.7 -10.9 -33.2 -16.3
Jan-Jul 84.7 -9.4 125.0 -10.6 -40.3 -13.0
Source: tuik            

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