Russian CPI breaks above 3% for the first time in a year as inflationary risks rise

Russian CPI breaks above 3% for the first time in a year as inflationary risks rise
Russian inflation breaks above 3% for the first time in a year as inflation pressures rise / bne IntelliNews
By bne IntelliNews August 30, 2018
Weekly consumer price inflation (CPI) on August 21-27 amounted to 0.1% for the second week in a row, following zero growth seen in the preceding weeks, according to the report by Rosstat statistics bureau. Annual inflation as of August 27 inched to 3% for the first time since September 2017.
 
Recent sanction-induced ruble weakening as well as other factors such as lower harvest expectations and upcoming VAT rate hike have awakened inflationary risks after the Central Bank of Russia managed to bring price growth to post-Soviet record lows.
 
Russian (CPI) ticked up to 2.5% in July, just below the consensus forecast of 2.6%, but is expected to continue to rise to the long-term trend level of 4% over the next year, the CBR said on August 6.
 
However, domestic analysts already suggested that emerging market volatility and looming US sanction threat might force the CBR to reconsider its previous guidance and hike the key interest rate from current 7.25% in September to curb potentially higher-than-expected inflation.
 
Most recently the Ministry of Economic Development already said that it will revise the full-year inflation forecast from previous 3.1% due to recent developments.

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