Russia is resisting international calls to release the three Ukrainian naval ships that its border patrols fired on and seized in the strait near Russian-annexed Crimea last weekend, but looks set to put them on trial to "prove" Ukraine provoked the clash. 

Moscow accused the 24 sailors of illegally crossing the Russian border, an accusation backed up by an investigation by Bellingcat that found the Ukrainian ships did in fact enter Russian territorial waters, albeit briefly, before leaving for international waters shortly after, where they were rammed and shot at by Russian forces.

Russian President Vladimir Putin said at the weekend that the sailors will be put on trial in Russia for violating the border, but the trial was also going to be used to “prove” that Ukraine provoked the naval clash, he added.

However, given Russia's long history of misinformation and muddying the waters, any evidence produced at the trial of the sailors is likely to be hotly disputed or simply dismissed by international observers as more “fake news.”

Deeply concerned
The international community was quick to condemn the clash on the Sea of Azov – the first time a Russian military unit has openly fired on a Ukrainian military unit – and most governments communicated some form of “Tagesspiegel newspaper on December 1. "Finally establishing a ceasefire, achieving the withdrawal of heavy armaments from both sides and then to make the first step towards lifting sanctions - that’s the only way out of this absolutely hopeless conflict," Gabriel told the paper.

German Foreign Minister Heiko Maas also tried to downplay the tensions, but he annoyed backers of Ukraine's position by calling on “both sides” to deescalate the tensions, suggesting that the German government is not sure if the naval clash in the Sea of Azov at the weekend was not a deliberate provocation by Ukraine.

Merkel called on Russia to honour a 2003 treaty that sets out the conditions under which Ukrainian ships may enter the Sea of Azov and reach Ukrainian cities. “Russia must stick to this,” she said.

Elections
Back in Kyiv the population reaction to the showdown has been mixed.

On November 26, Ukraine’s  parliament approved Poroshenko’s decree declaring a 30-day martial law in the Vinnitsa, Lugansk, Nikolayevsk, Odessa, Sumy, Kharkov, Chernigov, Donetsk, Zaporozhye and Kherson regions, as well as in Ukraine’s territorial waters in the Sea of Azov.

While Ukraine is under martial law the constitution bars holding any sort of election. With the official campaign for the March 31 presidential election to kick off on December 31, if martial law is still in effect on that day the presidential elections will have to be postponed or possibly cancelled. The possibility that these crucial  elections might be cancelled – elections Poroshenko will lose if his current polling numbers don't change – is the issue that most concerns Ukraine’s civil rights activists.

Local elections slated for December 13 have already been cancelled but Poroshenko introduced a bill on December 3 that will allow the local elections to go ahead.

"The president has submitted a bill to the Rada, which will make it possible to hold elections in the united territorial communities, where a special legal regime has been introduced,"  Presidential Envoy to the Verkhovna Rada (parliament) Irina Lutsenko said, reported Tass.

Rada Speaker Andrei Paruby said at the meeting that elections could be threatened in almost 40 newly-created united territorial communities following the declaration of martial law.

"It was agreed during consultations that today, the Ukrainian president would submit a relevant bill, which would tackle this legal issue," Paruby said, adding that he expected the bill to be passed later in the week.

Poroshenko attempted to allay civil society’s fears by saying he “hoped” there would be no need to extend martial law beyond the current 30 day duration.

"It is being introduced in Ukraine's recent history for the first time and just for 30 days. This period will be used to lower the threat against us, strengthen our defence and capability to defend Ukrainian citizens from an enemy strike ... I declare that we will be able to limit ourselves to the said measures, and their continuation, I hope, will not be necessary," Poroshenko said at Ukroboronprom state concern's delivery of military hardware to various military units in Kyiv region on December 1, Interfax Ukraine reported.

At the same time Ukraine has banned all Russians between the ages of 16-60 from entering the country to “prevent armies forming,” according to the president. By December 3, newswires were reporting that the number of Russians visiting the country had halved, down from circa 3,000 Russians that usually arrive every day. Moreover, the Ukrainian authorities reported that some 250 Russians arriving by car and plane had been turned back. However, the authorities also said over the weekend that some exceptions may be made and another 780 Russians were reportedly allowed to enter Ukraine from Russia.

The Russians said they would not reciprocate and countered with an announcement that they would make it easier for Ukrainians applying to obtain a Russian passport if they so wish.

Likewise all foreigners have been banned from crossing over into Crimea, including members of the foreign press. While it is possible to reach Crimea from a Russian airport or the new Kerch bridge, it is illegal under Ukrainian law. Again the authorities said over the weekend that some exceptions may be made for members of the press, although they have imposed a complicated application process.

War talk
Social media was set ablaze on December 2 after AFP reported Putin as saying that “the war in Ukraine will continue as long as Ukraine’s government is in power.”

However, it appears that the citation was badly translated and Putin was actually referring to a Russian proverb that is common in all of eastern Europe.

What Putin actually said was: “Кому война, а кому мать родная”, which is better translated as “There are those that want war and those that want a [strong] motherland.”

“The proverb is in fact about war profiteering: like, some have to fight a war, and some are fed by it, as if by a mother,” one Twitter user tweeted in response to calls for a better translation.

However, Putin has not minced his words when it comes to commentating on his feeling towards Poroshenko and the personal relations between the two men are toxic.

While there remains some confusion over the details as to what actually happened in the Kerch straits on November 25, and as to whether it was a provocation by Ukraine, the fact remains that Russia continues to occupy Crimea and is backing separatists in Donbas. This new flare-up has only reinforced Europe’s position on Russia and it will almost certainly mean a prolongation of sanctions again later this month.

European Council President Donald Tusk will chair a summit of EU leaders on December 13-14. It is set to roll over for another year the bloc’s measures against Russia’s defence, energy and banking sectors as punishment for Moscow’s role in the turmoil in Ukraine.

“Europe is united in its support for Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity. This is why I am sure that the EU will roll over the sanctions against Russia in December,” Tusk told a news conference in Argentina.

Troop build-ups reported
In the meantime, Ukraine has been stoking fears of more Russian aggression. Poroshenko claimed several times over the weekend that Russia was “massing troops on the Ukrainian border.”

Russia’s military has around 80,000 troops, around 1,400 artillery and missile systems, 900 tanks, 2,300 armoured vehicles, 500 airplanes, and around 300 helicopters all stationed in the “temporarily occupied” parts of Ukraine known as the Donbas and Crimea, Poroshenko told journalists.

However, he offered no evidence to back up his claims. RFE/RL reported the quotes with a disclaimer: “No independent confirmation of the numbers is available.” Despite this, other investigations have shown conclusively that Russia does have regular forces on-the-ground in Donbas aiding, and possibly directing, military operations against the Ukrainian army. The Kremlin has claimed that those Russian soldiers shown to be in Donbas, thanks to postings on geo-located postings on social media, were there “on holiday.”

During the worst of the 2014-2015 tensions following the annexation of Crimea both Ukraine and Nato repeatedly reported that Russia was massing troops for an invasion of Ukraine, but none of these reports was substantiated and no attack came. Experts argue that Russia is highly unlikely to invade Ukraine as firstly the Ukrainian army is much better prepared to repel an invasion after four years of tensions and secondly as Ukraine is so flat and without natural geographical defendable features, it would be very difficult and costly for Russia to hold the territory for long should such an invasion provoke a military response by Nato or the UN.

Russian officials have countered with reports of a build-up of Nato troops on Russia’s border.

"The NATO member-countries are arming themselves, with troops, heavy and armoured vehicles being amassed in the Baltic countries, Poland and other countries under the guise of drills," Russian Deputy Defence Minister, Colonel General Alexander Fomin, told reporters.

bne IntelliNews has argued elsewhere that Russia’s strategy seems to be to maintain a frozen conflict in Donbas to put economic and political pressure on Ukraine in the hopes of striking a deal that keeps Ukraine out of Nato and the EU and that it is prepared to maintain the frozen conflict for years if need be.

Ukraine on November 30 filed a complaint against Russia in the European Court of Human Rights over the incident in the strait that separates the Sea of Azov from the Black Sea.

Merkel said Germany had suggested — and Russia had agreed — that discussions about the dispute should continue at the advisor level in the four-way Normandy format that has sought to ease tensions between Ukraine and Russia, Reuters reported.