MACRO ADVISORY: Mongolia rising, but critically linked to China

Three years ago, Mongolia was broke and facing a possible debt default. It suffered a big drop in the volume and value of copper and coal exports to China during 2020-2021. Now it is doing better, but its fate is tied to China.

COMMENT: Trump threat of 50% tariffs for Europe could crush already soggy German growth

President Donald Trump’s threat to impose a 50% tariff on goods from the European Union from June 1 has sharpened fears of a renewed transatlantic trade war, though many analysts see the move as a negotiating tactic rather than a concrete policy.

COMMENT: China’s debt-trap diplomacy - lessons from Sri Lanka, Bangladesh, and beyond

For the nations affected this results in economic dependence on China and often the surrender of strategic assets - or both.

COMMENT: Can the digital ruble free Russian from the SWIFT sanctions bind?

Russia's central bank digital currency (CBDC), the digital ruble, is being positioned as a strategic tool to mitigate the impact of Western sanctions and reduce reliance on the SWIFT international payment system.

ING: Poland’s economy off to a positive start in the second quarter

April data from industry and the labour market suggest an encouraging start to the second quarter in Poland. One data point does not make a trend though, but we see encouraging signs that the recovery has resumed.

COMMENT: A protracted Sino-US trade war is good news for Russia

The United States and China may have agreed to a temporary pause in their escalating tariff battle, but the underlying trade war shows no signs of abating. While markets remain wary of further shocks, one country – Russia – is the big winner.

HALLIGAN: Georgia on my mind — and China's too

Having long ignored the Caucasus region, China is now showing intense interest in developing Black Sea infrastructure, not least in Georgia. The West is pushing back.

COMMENT: China and Latin America forge ‘shared future’ as US wields coercive diplomacy

China hosted Latin American leaders at the China-CELAC Forum, pledging $9.2bn and deeper ties. As US influence fades, Beijing’s “shared future” vision gains ground, fueling a shift in global alliances and challenging Washington’s dominance.

PANNIER: Party in parliament declares itself Uzbekistan's opposition. Something to get excited about?

The country’s registered parties bicker, or pretend to bicker, but they’re all loyal to the president.

COMMENT: Amid shrinking civic space, will the EBRD still uphold its democratic mandate?

As the global Democracy Index recorded a historic low in 2024, institutions tasked with upholding democratic values are under increasing pressure to adapt.

COMMENT: Taiwan is playing with darkness by abandoning nuclear power

Japan has restarted many of its nuclear reactors, recognising their role in energy security and climate targets. South Korea has also reinstated nuclear as a core component of its energy strategy. Taiwan, by contrast, is marching backwards.

In Kurdish peace moves, expect ailing founder Ocalan to get Turkish Riviera house arrest and “Real PKK” splinter to emerge, says analyst

Ankara thinks it can “mop up” those who continue fighting, adds Soner Cagaptay.

COMMENT: China’s quiet power play in Southeast Asia

BEYOND THE BOSPORUS: Who's to say PKK guns won't be used under a different name?

And anyway, despite what you are reading, the militants' so-called name has not been in use since 2002.

COMMENT: Why Asia should not follow the failed European model

Over the past 15 years, Europe’s trade frameworks have faltered, integration has stalled, and a number of its core political and economic ideas have failed under real-world pressure.

COMMENT: Lessons from Ukraine suggest India will not go to war with Pakistan

The vast economic and demographic imbalance between India and Pakistan strongly favours New Delhi in any theoretical war between the two rivals. Yet, lessons from the ongoing war in Ukraine suggest that India cannot win a total war.

COMMENT: Central Europe’s diverging economic paths challenge regional policy synchronisation – ING

The economic trajectories of Central and Eastern European countries are drifting apart, with growth, inflation, and policy direction showing increasing divergence.

Food, Water, Energy: Romanian extremists' utopian model or a road to authoritarianism

Calin Georgescu’s “Food, Water, Energy” programme promises to heal Romania, but could morph into an authoritarian project.

HALLIGAN: Power struggle in OPEC+ is pulling oil prices down

The oil market has entered choppy waters once again. Crude prices fell by a dramatic 18% in April y/y – the sharpest monthly drop since November 2021 – partly due to a global slowdown, but more due to a power struggle within OPEC+.

COMMENT: The US doesn’t have the clout to split Hungary off from China

The US doesn't have the clout to even get countries as small as Hungary to cut their ties with China, says political commentator and bne IntelliNews columnist Arnaud Bertrand.