The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has revised up its 2018 growth projection for Kazakhstan by 0.5pp to 3.7% in the October 2018 edition of its World Economic Outlook.

The revision reflects stronger oil production, though “medium-term prospects remain subdued”, according to the report. The forecast growth is close to the Kazakh government’s own estimate, which sees the GDP expansion easing to 3.8% in 2018, down from 4% in 2017 - growth in the first seven months of 2018 stood at 4%. The estimated growth figure was also based on expectations for a continual rise in oil prices.

The Outlook expects GDP growth in Kazakhstan to slow to 3.1% in 2019.

As far as other Central Asian countries are concerned, the IMF expects Uzbekistan’s growth to decelerate slightly to 5% in 2018 from 5.3% in 2017 and remain at the same level in 2019.

Turkmenistan is expected to post 6.2% of growth in 2018 and 5.6% in 2019, down from 6.5% in 2017 - but the figures are undermined by the Turkmen government’s unreliable statistics and as such likely reflect general trends expected by the IMF rather than actual Turkmen growth trends.

Tajikstan's growth is seen falling to 5% in 2018, down from the 7.1% reported by the country’s official statistics authorities for 2017. Tajik official statisticians are also known for being unreliable with their data. In 2019, Tajik growth is expected by the IMF to remain at 4%.

Finally, Kyrgyzstan’s growth is also seen slowing in 2018, to 2.8% compared to the 4.5% recorded in 2017. A recovery to 4.5% is anticipated for 2019.