IMF lowers Serbia's 2010 GDP growth projection, rises inflation forecest.

By bne IntelliNews October 7, 2010
According to the latest IMF's World Economic Outlook (WEO), Serbia's GDP will grow by 1.5% this year, which is a downward revision from 2% 2010 GDP growth projection published in the previous WEO as of April. However, we note that the lender slashed Serbia's GDP growth projection for this year to 1.5% in May, following the conclusion of the fourth review under EUR 2.9bn SBA, citing negative regional developments. The IMF, however, reiterated its projections for 2011 and 2015 at 3% and 5% GDP growth, respectively. We note that the growth in CEE has been projected at 3.7% in 2010 and 3.1% in 2011. On the other hand, inflation forecasts have been raised to 6.8% for 2010 and 5% for 2011 (from 6% and 4.5%, respectively, in the previous WEO report). The current account deficit projection was also amended, and the gap is now projected at 9.6% of GDP this year, instead of 8.2% of GDP in the previous WEO report. On a separate note, PM Mirko Cvetkovic said at a roundtable with the government organised by Ekonom:east Media Group that Serbia's GDP growth would reach 1.5% or end slightly above it this year, a press release on the cabinet's website said. Cvetkovic recalled that Serbia was one of the few countries in the region that recorded growth in H1.

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