The IMF has maintained its 2014 GDP projection for Romania to 2.2% under the latest World Economic Outlook even if downgrading the prospect for whole Emerging and Developing Europe* to 2.4% from 2.7% under the previous version of WEO dated October 2013.
SAME GROWTH BUT HIGHER BASE. In 2013, Romania’s GDP expanded by 3.5% -- well above the Fund’s expectations last October – meaning that the country’s GDP will achieve the 2.2% advance starting from a higher base, under the current version of WEO compared to the October forecast. In 2015, the IMF expects Romania’s GDP to accelerate at a 2.5% growth rate.
The IMF also expects Romania’s C/A balance to slightly widen from 1.1% of GDP last year to 1.7% of GDP in 2014 and 2.2% in 2015. Not only that the country’s external position is seen as more robust than under the October 2013 forecast [when this year’s C/A balance was seen at 2.5% of GDP], but it is visibly better than the performance. For Emerging and Developing Europe, IMF expects a 3.6% of GDP C/A gap – indeed a better performance compared to the 4.5% of GDP deficit seen last October.
CORRECTION IN 2014 FORECAST DRIVEN BY TURKEY. The downgrade of the 2014 GDP outlook for the whole region [from 2.7% to 2.4%] is mainly driven by the change in the forecast for Turkey -- to 2.3% from 3.5% in October, after the 2013 performance exceeded by 0.5pps the 3.8% October forecast. For Poland, the forecast is actually improved from 2.4% to 3.1%, for Hungary from 1.3% to 2%, while for Bulgaria the forecast is maintained at 1.6%.
* including Turkey, Romania, Hungary, Bulgaria, Serbia, Croatia, Lithuania and a group of smaller economies [Albania, Bosnia, Kosovo, Macedonia, and Montenegro].
Romanian gas transport company Transgaz has teamed up with Spain’s Regasificadora del Noroeste in an attempt to take over its Greek peer DESFA, where the Greek state has put a 66% stake up for ... more
Romania’s former prime minister Dacian Ciolos, who headed a cabinet of technocrats in 2015-2016, has announced plans to found a political party based on his Romania 100 civic platform. Ciolos plans ... more
The European Commission said that will refer Bulgaria and Romania, along with Luxembourg and Spain, to the Court of Justice of the EU as they have failed to notify ... more