IMF keeps 2011 GDP growth forecast for Montenegro at 2%.

By bne IntelliNews September 21, 2011
The IMF projects the Montenegrin economy to grow by 2% y/y in 2011, unchanged from its spring forecast, according to the latest WEO report published on the website of the institution. The projections for all main indicators remain the same as in the last forecast. The economic recovery is to gather pace in 2012 when GDP is expected to grow by 3.5% y/y. In 2011, the inflationary pressure will increase and consumer price inflation will reach 3.1%, up from 1% under the autumn 2010 projection. The consumer price inflation will gradually subdue to 2% in 2012. The Fund's estimate for the CA deficit is for 24.5% of GDP in 2011, up from 12% of GDP according to the October 2010 economic projections, but still marking a slight improvement as compared to the 25.6% of GDP gap reported in 2010. The CA deficit is to decline to 22.1% in 2012. In regional comparison, the IMF projected the Albanian economy to expand by 2.5% in 2011 (down from 3.4% y/y in the spring forecast), Macedonia - by 3% y/y (unchanged from the spring forecast ), Serbia - by 2% y/y (down from 2% y/y), Bosnia and Herzegovina - by 2.2% y/y (up from 2%) and Croatia - by 0.8% (down from 1.3% y/y).
IMF projections for key macroeconomic variables in Montenegro
2011 2011 2011 2012
October'10 WEO April'11 WEO September'11 WEO September'11 WEO
GDP, % change y/y 4.50% 2.00% 2.00% 3.50%
Inflation, p.a. 1.00% 3.10% 3.10% 2.00%
CA balance, % of GDP -12.00% -24.50% -24.50% -22.10%
Source: World Economic Outlook, IMF

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