Estonian industrial production growth slowed down to 2.7% y/y in November, working-day adjusted data from Statistics Estonia showed on January 4.

The expansion is 3.5pp slower than the annual reading for October and marks a return to the subdued growth figures that dominated in the second half of 2017. Overall, however, the positive streak in the sector has lasted 15 consecutive months.

Estonian GDP grew just 1.6% in 2016, still improving on the six-year low of 1.1% the preceding year. The economy made a good start to 2017, with the first quarter GDP growing 4.4%, then surging to 5.7% y/y in April-June, and 4.2% y/y in the third quarter.

GDP expansion forecasts for 2017 range from 2.3% by the European Commission to more than 3.5%, according to Swedbank.

In unadjusted annual terms, industrial production grew 2.7% in November as well. In seasonally adjusted monthly terms, output fell 1.4%.

The working-day adjusted annual production growth in November was driven by expansion in the manufacturing and mining segments, where output expanded 4% and 9.7% on an annual basis, respectively. Energy production fell 9.5% y/y.

Most manufacturing sub-segments increased output, with the exception of computers, electronics, optical products, as well as furniture and textiles.

Around 67% of industrial output was sold on the external market, Statistics Estonia also reported. That has been nearly a constant ratio over several months now. According to unadjusted data, export sales of manufacturing production grew 4% y/y in November, while domestic sales rose 9% on the year.