EBRD ups Poland's GDP growth outlook for 2012, cuts 2013 forecast.

By bne IntelliNews July 25, 2012
Poland's economic growth will probably amount to 2.9% in 2012, but will decelerate to 2.4% in 2013 (vs. 4.3% in 2011), according to the new forecasts of the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD). In May, EBRD projected the 2012 figure at 2.7%, while in January - at 2.3%. The improved 2012 growth outlook is attributed to reliance on Poland's large domestic market and good policy track record. However, EBRD lowered its forecast for 2013 by 0.5pps compared to the May report. It noted that in H1 of 2012, domestic demand continued to support to growth, but fiscal adjustments will reduce public infrastructure spending, as some social transfers are being scaled back. The Polish government sticks to its 2.5% GDP growth forecast, similarly to the International Monetary Fund (IMF), while the European Commission expects growth of 2.7% and Fitch Ratings - of 2.8%.

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