EBRD keeps Montenegro's 2013 GDP forecast unchanged.

By bne IntelliNews January 22, 2013
In the latest edition of its Regional economic Prospects report, the EBRD kept Montenegro's 2013 GDP growth forecast at 0.8%. Montenegro is still recovering from the effects of the crisis and it has to deal with still high current account deficit, the Bank said. Furthermore, volatile industrial production and negative annual credit growth weigh on Montenegro's growth prospects as does the uncertain future of the aluminium complex KAP. On the positive side, the EBRD points out that FDI inflow remained high in 2012. The country's GDP growth this year will remain below the average for SEE of 1.5%. The EBRD growth expectations are less optimistic than the latest EU and IMF forecast for 2.4% and 1.5% GDP growth this year respectively. It is also considerably below the official government's projection for 2.5% GDP expansion. However, the EBRD outlook is in line with the latest World Bank forecast issued last week.
Current forecast Changes from the previous forecast
EBRD Regional Economic prospects, January 2013, annual growth rate, % 2012 2013 2012 2013
South-Eastern Europe average 0.1 1.5 -0.3 -0.1
Albania 1.8 2.0 1.2 0.7
Bosnia and Herzegovina -0.5 0.6 -0.6 0.2
Bulgaria 1.1 1.9 -0.1 0.2
Macedonia -0.5 1.8 -0.8 -0.2
Montenegro 0.3 0.8 0.0 0.0
Kosovo 2.5 3.0
Romania 0.3 1.4 -0.2 -0.5
Serbia -1.9 2.1 -1.2 1.0

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