EBRD cuts Serbia's GDP growth projections for 2010 and 2011.

By bne IntelliNews October 29, 2010
The EBRD worsened its projections for Serbia's GDP growth to 1.6% y/y for 2010 and 2.9% y/y for 2011 in its latest report on the regional economic prospects in the EBRD countries of operation, the lender said in a statement posted on its website. We note that in its July projections, the EBRD saw Serbia's economic growth at 1.9% y/y in 2010 and 3% y/y in 2011. Southeastern Europe is expected to witness 0.6% y/y contraction in 2010 and post an average growth of 1.6% y/y in 2011. The projections for the entire SEE region were revised upwards compared to July's forecast. All of the SEE countries are expected grow this year, except for Romania and Montenegro. Albania and Serbia will be the fastest growing economies this year. However, we note that South Eastern Europe, which includes Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Bulgaria, Macedonia, Montenegro, Romania and Serbia, is expected to post much lower growth both in 2010 and 2011 than other regions and states, e.g. central Europe and the Baltic states, eastern Europe and the Caucasus, Russia, Turkey and Central Asia. In its latest report, the EBRD noted the recovery in the SEE lagged behind other transition regions, as domestic demand there remains sluggish. On the more positive side, the EBRD stressed on the exports recovery in the region, aided by the restored global demand for key exports from the region. In Serbia, major infrastructure projects are supportive of growth, while the country also benefited from global demand for key metal commodities.

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