World Bank cuts GDP forecast for Albania to 3.7% in 2011, 4.2% in 2012.

By bne IntelliNews January 14, 2011
Albanian economy is projected to grow by real 3.7% y/y in 2011 and by 4.2% in 2012, the World Bank said in its latest edition of the Global Economic Prospects. Previously the Bank expected the real GDP growth to be 4% this year ant 4.7% in 2012. Despite the downgrade, Albanias economy is still expected to grow by the fastest pace among countries in the region. In 2010, the countrys GDP grew by 3% y/y. The current account deficit is seen falling to 10.9% of GDP in 2011 and to 9.9% in 2012 from 12.2% expected for 2010. The Bank said Albania remains vulnerable to economic downturns in neighbouring Greece, since Albanian financial institution benefited from heavy capital inflows from Greek banks. We note that the International Monetary Fund (IMF) forecast in October, that Albanias GDP will grow by 3.2% in 2011, 1pps above the EBRDs projection, also made last October.
 WB projections for 2011%)
  GDP CA balance
Albania 3.7 -10.9
Kosovo 5.7 -18.2
Bulgaria 2.5 -3.1
Macedonia 3.0 -5.3
Romania 1.5 -6.4
Turkey 4.1 -5.8
Source:  WB, Global Economic Prospects, Winter 2011

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