World Bank: Anti-government protests’ effect on Turkish economy limited.

By bne IntelliNews July 4, 2013

The effects of the recent anti-government protests on the Turkish economy have been limited, The World Bank country director Martin Raiser said. The Bank issued its latest Turkey Regular Economic Brief on Jul 3 where it says the Turkish GDP growth this year is forecast to remain below trend at 3.6%.

The existing data do not show any negative signals on the confidence in Turkey and in tourism revenues, Raiser said. The World Bank (WB) links the moderate GDP growth prospects to persistent global uncertain and the recent tightening of international liquidity but the Bank points to signs of a revival in domestic demand. Turkey’s external financing needs is a key vulnerability and recent global trends may limit the room for the Central Bank to further support the economy, the WB says.

The current account deficit is likely to widen again (to USD 57.1bn or 6.9% of GDP) as domestic demand accelerates, and the external financing requirement remains high this year, the WB report asserted. The WB expects GDP growth to accelerate to 4.5% next year and to 4.7% in 2015.

The World Bank already cut its 2013 GDP growth forecast for the Turkish economy from 4% to 3.6% in the latest issue of the Global Economic Prospects report. The OECD also lowered its 2013 GDP growth estimate to 3.1% from 4.1%. In April, the IMF trimmed its 2013 GDP growth forecast to 3.4% from 3.5%. Turkey’s GDP growth accelerated to 3% y/y in Q1 from 1.4% y/y in the final quarter of 2012. In 2012, as a whole, the Turkish economy grew 2.2%.

World Bank projections on Turkish economy
  2013 2014 2015 2016
GDP growth (%) 3.6 4.5 4.7 5.1
CPI (end period) 6.2 5.2 5 5
Public sector primary balance (% of GDP) 1.6 1.7 1.7 1.8
Gross external debt (% of GDP) 43.6 43.4 42.7 42.4
Current account deficit (USD bn) 57.2 61.2 64.9 64.2
Current account deficit (% of GDP) 6.9 7.1 7.2 6.8
Reserves (including gold, in USD bn) 124.3 127.3 129.8 131.4
Source: World Bank        

Related Articles

Poland supports Turkey’s near-dead EU membership bid

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan received a warm welcome from his Polish peer Andrzej Duda on October 17, as Warsaw said it supported Ankara’s formally ongoing bid to become a member of the ... more

Poland claims there will be “no taboo” in talks with Erdogan

Poland will skip no touchy topics in talks with President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, visiting Warsaw on October 17, the office of President Andrzej Duda said ahead of the visit by the Turkish leader, ... more

Erdogan says he plans talks with lenders on cutting Turkish interest rates

Turkey's President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said on October 13 that he plans to hold talks with both public and private lenders on how to lower interest rates. He did not say, however, when those ... more