The effects of the recent anti-government protests on the Turkish economy have been limited, The World Bank country director Martin Raiser said. The Bank issued its latest Turkey Regular Economic Brief on Jul 3 where it says the Turkish GDP growth this year is forecast to remain below trend at 3.6%.
The existing data do not show any negative signals on the confidence in Turkey and in tourism revenues, Raiser said. The World Bank (WB) links the moderate GDP growth prospects to persistent global uncertain and the recent tightening of international liquidity but the Bank points to signs of a revival in domestic demand. Turkey’s external financing needs is a key vulnerability and recent global trends may limit the room for the Central Bank to further support the economy, the WB says.
The current account deficit is likely to widen again (to USD 57.1bn or 6.9% of GDP) as domestic demand accelerates, and the external financing requirement remains high this year, the WB report asserted. The WB expects GDP growth to accelerate to 4.5% next year and to 4.7% in 2015.
The World Bank already cut its 2013 GDP growth forecast for the Turkish economy from 4% to 3.6% in the latest issue of the Global Economic Prospects report. The OECD also lowered its 2013 GDP growth estimate to 3.1% from 4.1%. In April, the IMF trimmed its 2013 GDP growth forecast to 3.4% from 3.5%. Turkey’s GDP growth accelerated to 3% y/y in Q1 from 1.4% y/y in the final quarter of 2012. In 2012, as a whole, the Turkish economy grew 2.2%.
|World Bank projections on Turkish economy|
|GDP growth (%)||3.6||4.5||4.7||5.1|
|CPI (end period)||6.2||5.2||5||5|
|Public sector primary balance (% of GDP)||1.6||1.7||1.7||1.8|
|Gross external debt (% of GDP)||43.6||43.4||42.7||42.4|
|Current account deficit (USD bn)||57.2||61.2||64.9||64.2|
|Current account deficit (% of GDP)||6.9||7.1||7.2||6.8|
|Reserves (including gold, in USD bn)||124.3||127.3||129.8||131.4|
|Source: World Bank|
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