Ukraine's GDP plummets 17.6% y/y in first quarter

By bne IntelliNews May 15, 2015

Ukraine's economic collapse accelerated in the first quarter of 2015 to 17.6% on the year, compared to 14.8% on the year in the fourth quarter of 2014, according to the state statistics service. GDP fell by 6.5% on the quarter. The National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) previously estimated the GDP collapse in Q1 2015 at 15%.

On May 14, the European Bank of Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) predicted a 7.5% fall in GDP on the year for 2015, in agreement with the current NBU forecast.

The extent of GDP collapse is expected to bottom out in the course of 2015 due to the effect of a low base. Ukraine's economy started to collapse in the second quarter of 2014, under the impact of a revolution in Kyiv and military aggression by Russian-backed separatists in the eastern regions. According to the state statistics service, Ukraine's GDP in 2014 fell by 6.8% on the year.

The NBU forecasts a second quarter drop of 10.2% on the year, a third quarter drop of 5.7%, and fourth quarter growth of 2%.

Ukraine's budget for 2015 assumes a fall in GDP of 5.5% under an optimistic scenario, 8.6% as a middle scenario, and 11.9% as a worst-case scenario.

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