Ukraine's leading coal and utility holding DTEK Energy generated 25.66 TWh of electricity in January-August, which is 0.9% less year-on-year, the Concorde Capital brokerage in Kyiv calculates based on sector-wide information published by Energobiznes.
In August alone, DTEK Energy produced 3.67 TWh of electricity, which is 23% up y/y, but 6% less compared with July. Average monthly electricity production by DTEK in July and August was 3.80 TWh, which is 38% more than the average for the second quarter of the year.
Since all of Ukraine's TPPs reduced their power supply in September by 12% m/m, Concorde estimates that the output at all of DTEK's power plants declined 11% m/m in September, which implies DTEK Energy boosted its power generation by 31-32% q/q in January-March.
DTEK's anthracite-burning thermal power plants (TPPs) boosted generation 88% y/y to 6.68 TWh, while hard-coal burning TPPs reduced their production 17% y/y to 16.95 TWh in January-August.
The statistics cited do not account for the results of DTEK's Zuyivska plant, located in the Donetsk region of the Donbas conflict zone in East Ukraine.
Based on the recent results, Concorde expects DTEK's power generation division will perform slightly better in 2016 than expectations of a 5% y/y decline in electricity output.
"Thus far, we do not see enough reasons to change our 2016 DTEK Ebitda forecast of $475 mn, as well as our neutral view on DTEKUA Eurobonds," Concorde analyst Alexander Paraschiy wrote in a note on October 13.