Ukraine's real GDP grew 2.1% year-on-year in July-September, which is in line with previously released numbers, the Ukrstat state statistics agency in Kyiv reported on December 19.

Ukraine’s private consumption slowed to 5.2% y/y growth in the third quarter (from 6.6% y/y in the second quarter). Government consumption grew 4.1% y/y from a 7.8% y/y drop in the previous quarter. Investment in fixed assets eased to 15.8% y/y growth from 23.7% y/y in the second quarter.

Real exports surged to 13.2% y/y growth from a 2.1% y/y drop in the previous quarter. Real imports slowed to 2.6% y/y growth from 4.6% yoy in the second quarter

"The structure of July-September GDP growth provided surprises. Private consumption and investments remain strong, despite slowing," Alexander Paraschiy at Kyiv-based brokerage Concorde Capital wrote in a research note on December 20. "However, unlike previously, we see strong contributions of net exports (4.54 pp) on the back of real exports surging amid real imports easing."

Stronger net exports might result in a better October-December GDP performance than initially projected, according to the expert. However, in light of the poor grain harvest (-6.0% as of Nov. 1), Concorde still expects a 1.5% y/y growth in the fourth quarter.

Paraschiy anticipates GDP accelerating to 3.5% y/y growth in 2018.

Ukraine's Economic Ministry forecasts GDP growth at 1.8% y/y in 2017. The ministry expects that GDP growth would accelerate to 3% in 2018, 3.6% in 2019 and 4% in 2020. According to the ministry's assessments, inflation by the end of this year would be 11.2%. In 2018, it is projected that inflation would slow to 7%, in 2019 to 5.9% and in 2010 to 5%,

The National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) has revised its economic forecast for this year upward from 1.6% y/y to 2.2% y/y saying that the nation's economic growth in 2017 will be stronger than expected. This was the result of a more favourable than expected effect from both internal and external factors on the economic performance of most sectors in the second and the third quarters of the year. High commodity prices, especially steel prices, added to revenues.

GDP growth is expected by the central bank to speed up to 3.2% and 3.5% in 2018 and 2019 respectively.

In April, the NBU revised its 2017 GDP forecast from 2.8% to 1.9% growth year-on-year due to expectations that the trade blockade in eastern Ukraine and the loss of the production facilities in the rebel-held areas in the Donbas region will decrease the output of some industries.

Then, in July, the NBU revised its 2017 forecast downwards even further to 1.6%. The move was attributed to the poor economic performance in the first half of the year, primarily in services, and the revised crop yields assessments. Industries most susceptible to the severance of production ties with the rebel-held Donbas territories - the mining and metals sector, energy and transport  – were predicted to underperform.