Turkish September unemployment, November central budget data to be released on December 15

By bne IntelliNews December 15, 2014

The statistics office, TUIK, will release on November 15 unemployment data for the month of September.

The unemployment rate rose for a third consecutive month in August, hitting 10.1% in August versus 9.8% in July. The seasonally adjusted jobless rate was unchanged at 10.4% from July to August. Employment generally rises during summer months as construction and tourisms activities pick up but this year, on the contrary, the jobless rate rose, underlining weak economic activity. The latest GDP data did not signal for any meaningful recovery in employment in months to come. The Turkish economy expanded at a much weaker pace than the markets had expected in Q3. GDP growth slowed to 1.7% y/y (2.2% y/y in Q2 and 4.8% y/y in Q1) in the quarter versus the market consensus forecast of 3% y/y. Last month, the OECD said it expected unemployment rate to rise to 10.1% next year from a projected 9.9% in 2014.

The ministry of finance will announce on December 15 the central government budget realisations for November. The budget ran a deficit of TRY3bn (€1.08bn) in October versus TRY3.2bn shortfall a year ago. Expenditures rose 12% y/y with non-interest falling 1.9% y/y and interest expenditures rising 109.7% y/y. The ministry explained that the increase in interest expenditures was temporary and it was due to the maturity structure of the debt stock. VAT collection was down 16.3% y/y, suggesting that domestic demand was still weak. Slower GDP growth probably hurts tax revenues in November. The government initially projected a budget deficit of TRY33.3bn (or 1.9% of GDP) for 2014, but, it revised its forecast, trimming the budget deficit estimate to 1.4% (TRY24.4bn) of GDP.

  Oct Jan-Oct 2013 2014 y/y
 (TRY bn) 2014  y/y 2014  y/y Realization Budget (%)
Revenues 34.2 13.8% 347.7 8.6% 389.7 403.2 3%
 Tax Revenues 27.9 7.3% 286.6 7.6% 326.2 348.4 7%
  VAT Revenues 3.1 -16.3% 32.3 -1.0% 38.0 39.6 4%
  SCT Revenues 8.3 9.3% 73.7 5.0% 85.5 89.4 5%
  Import Tax Revenues 5.3 7.1% 52.4 3.5% 62.7 64.8 3%
Expenditures 37.2 12.0% 362.6 10.6% 408.2 436.4 7%
 Interest Expenses 7.0 190.7% 45.3 -2.1% 50.0 52.0 4%
Budget Balance -3.0 5.0% -14.9 94.9% -18.5 -33.3 79%
Primary Balance 4.0 - 30.3 -21.4% 31.4 18.7 -40%
Source: ministry of finance

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