Turkish retail sales growth strengthens further to 5.4% y/y in December

Turkish retail sales growth strengthens further to 5.4% y/y in December
By bne IntelliNews February 9, 2018

Turkey's calendar-adjusted retail sales volume index rose by 5.4% y/y in November following annual growth of 2.4% in October and 4.1% y/y in Novembernational statistics office TUIK reported on February 8.

February 2016's 4.4% annual contraction in retail sales was the highest posted since 2010, when the compilation of the retail trade data began. The March and April figures therefore marked a substantial deceleration in the descent of the index. Across May-August, retail sales posted annual growth but then once more turned to contraction in September.

Annual retail sales growth slightly escalated from 0.8% in 2016, the lowest annual rise ever, to 1% in 2017.

Turkey’s economic confidence index jumped by 10% m/m to 104.9 points in January, the highest level registered since August. Retail confidence rose by 5.6% m/m following the slight 0.7% m/m rise recorded in December. 

Consumer sentiment also jumped by 11% m/m in January to 72.3.

The OECD is forecasting that private final consumption growth in Turkey will decline to 3% in 2017 from 4.1% in 2016.

The big driver behind a six-year high of 11.1% y/y GDP growth in Q3 was final consumption expenditure by resident households, which grew 11.7% from a year earlier. 

However, there has been some doubt expressed by analysts as to the reliability of the official growth figures.