Turkish November inflation comes in at 0.18% m/m, lower than expectations

By bne IntelliNews December 3, 2014

Consumer prices rose 0.18% y/y in November, lower than the market consensus forecast of a 0.3% rise, as food inflation eased and transportation costs dropped in the month, data of the statistics office, TUIK, showed on December 3. The annual inflation accelerated to 9.15% from 8.96% in October.

The rise in food prices eased to 0.24% m/m in November from 2.65% m/m in October, adding 0.06 percentage points to headline inflation. The annual food inflation still stood at a high of 14.37%. Clothing prices rose 4.11% m/m, adding another 0.31 percentage points, transportation costs fell 1.79% m/m shaving 0.29 percentage points from headline inflation. Communication prices were down 0.13% m/m.

The core inflation (measured by the I-index; one of the Central Bank’s favourite indicators) rose 0.62% m/m in November, after a 1.57% m/m increase in the previous month, bringing the annual inflation rate to 9.03%. The I-index excludes the prices of energy, food and non-alcoholic beverages, alcoholic beverages and tobacco products and gold.

Domestic producer prices that showed a 0.92% m/m increase in October fell 0.97% m/m in November, data showed. The annual producer price inflation eased to 8.36% from 10.10%.

According to the medium-term programme, the government expects CPI inflation to fall to 6.3% next year after hitting 9.4% this year.

November CPI by Main Expenditure Groups (%)
  Weights m/m y/y
Headline 100 0.18 9.15
Food and non-alcoholic beverages 24.45 0.24 14.37
Alcoholic beverages and tobacco 5.29 0.00 4.81
Clothing and footwear 7.17 4.11 9.71
Housing, utilities 16.41 0.21 7.64
Furnishings, household equipment 7.52 0.86 8.13
Health 2.44 0.23 9.33
Transportation 15.54 -1.79 5.06
Communications 4.70 -0.13 1.59
Recreation and culture 3.36 -1.32 5.89
Education 2.26 0.25 8.31
Hotels, cafes and restaurants 6.58 0.63 14.32
Miscellaneous goods and services 4.28 -0.10 8.82
Source: tuik      

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