Turkish November CPI inflation comes in at 0.01% m/m, comparing favourably with expectations.

By bne IntelliNews December 3, 2013

Consumer prices rose 0.01% m/m in November, the statistics institute (TUIK) said on Tuesday. This brought the annual CPI inflation rate to 7.32% from the previous month’s 7.71%. The markets had expected a monthly inflation rate of 0.5%.

Food prices are still volatile and they were the main driver behind the lower-than-expected November inflation. Food prices declined 1.34% m/m in November for an annualised inflation of 9.77%. Clothing prices were up 3.27% m/m due to seasonal factors while transport costs declined 0.08% m/m. The prices of alcoholic beverages & tobacco fell 0.64% but house appliances prices (7.28% share in the CPI basket) registered a 0.52% m/m increase. Communication prices declined by 0.41% m/m.

One of the Central Bank’s main core inflation indicators (I-index which excludes the prices of energy, food & non-alcoholic beverages, alcoholic beverages, tobacco products and gold) rose 0.63% m/m in November after rising 1.78% m/m in October. The annual core inflation (measured by the I-index) decelerated to 7.22% from 7.49% in October.

Producer prices rose 0.62% m/m in November. The annual PPI inflation decelerated to 5.67% from 6.77% in October, TUIK data also showed.

In October, the Central Bank raised its end-2013 inflation forecast to 6.8% from a previous 6.2% and end-2014 forecast to 5.3% from a previous 5% due to exchange rate developments and oil prices. The official inflation target both for 2013 and 2014 is 5%. The Central Bank expects inflation to plunge in early 2014, and come down to levels consistent with the target by the last quarter of 2014.

Last week, the IMF’s executive board said in an assessment concluding its annual consultation with Turkey that the domestic demand-led growth was leading to a renewed deterioration in inflation and the current account deficit. The Fund forecasts an annual CPI inflation of 8.0% at the end of this year and 6.0% next year.

Earlier last week, the Central Bank said in the minutes of the latest monetary policy committee (MPC) meeting that inflation indicators were likely to hover above the inflation target for some time due to the exchange rate volatility observed during the recent months.

Last month, the Central Bank’s monthly Expectations Survey showed that end-year inflation expectations jumped to 7.71% in November from 7.39% in October.

November CPI by Main Expenditure Groups (%)
  Weights m/m y/y
Headline 100 0.01 7.32
Food and non-alcoholic beverages 24.09 -1.34 9.77
Alcoholic beverages and tobacco 5.07 -0.64 13.55
Clothing and footwear 6.83 3.27 6.04
Housing, utilities 16.68 0.44 4.16
Furnishings, household equipment 7.28 0.52 5.97
Health 2.22 0.76 4.07
Transportation 17.99 -0.08 8.28
Communications 4.64 -0.41 2.58
Recreation and culture 2.95 0.65 4.80
Education 1.91 0.00 10.06
Hotels, cafes and restaurants 6.18 0.64 9.40
Miscellaneous goods and services 4.16 0.21 2.35
Source: tuik      

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