Latest PMI survey data from Istanbul Chamber of Industry and Markit showed on October 1 that the headline PMI fell to 48.8, the lowest level since April’s 48.5, in September 49.3 in August, as a signal to on-going deterioration in business conditions at the end of Q3. The index fell under 50-benchmark level, separating optimism and pessimism, in August.
Industrial production data for July was not promising too. The 0.3% y/y rise recorded in industrial output in July was the lowest rate of increase since February. The only month industrial production contracted this year is January when output fell 2.1% y/y on a calendar adjusted basis. The disappointing July data weighs another pressure on Turkish lira and stocks that have already been under pressure because of heightened political uncertainty ahead of the November elections and security concerns. Recent macroeconomic data does not point to a significant recovery in economic activity.
| Industrial Production by main Industrial Groups (July) | ||
| (%) | Calendar Adjusted | Seasonally & Calendar Adjusted |
| (y/y) | (m/m) | |
| Total Industry | 0.3 | -1.5 |
| Intermediate Goods | 0.2 | -1.7 |
| Durable Consumer Goods | -2.5 | -11.3 |
| Non-durable Consumer Goods | 0.6 | -2.5 |
| Energy | 3.3 | 2.1 |
| Capital Goods | -1.7 | -0.1 |
| Source: tuik | ||
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