Turkish inflation expectations drop to 6.77% y/y in February

By bne IntelliNews February 20, 2015

The Central Bank’s monthly survey found that end-year inflation expectations fell to 6.77% in February from 6.82% in January, still above the government’s forecast of 6.3%. Consumer prices rose 1.1% m/m in January (market consensus: 0.7% m/m) in January, bringing the annual inflation rate to 7.24% from 8.17% in December. 12-month ahead inflation expectations were revised down to 6.69% from 6.81% in the previous survey, the Central Bank said on February 20.

Consumer prices are expected to rise 0.49% m/m in February and 0.61% m/m in March, the survey also showed.

The participants of the Central Bank survey slashed their current account deficit forecasts for 2015 to $40.3bn from $41.4bn while they revised the 2016 deficit forecast upwards slightly to $44.6bn from a previous $44.4bn. The government sees both this year and next year’s deficit at $46bn.

GDP growth expectations for 2015 revised to 3.5% in February versus 3.4% in the previous survey while the 2016 expectations were unchanged at 3.8%, said the Central Bank.

Central Bank Expectations Survey  
  Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb
End-Year Inflation (%) 9.16 9.22 9.02 6.82 6.72
12-Month Ahead Inflation (%) 7.54 7.50 7.21 6.81 6.69
End-Year Current Account Deficit ($ bn) -47.8 -46.7 -44.6 -41.4 -40.3
End-Year GDP Growth (%) 3.2 3.2 3.0 3.4 3.5
Source: tcmb  
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