The Central Bank’s monthly survey found that end-year inflation expectations fell to 6.77% in February from 6.82% in January, still above the government’s forecast of 6.3%. Consumer prices rose 1.1% m/m in January (market consensus: 0.7% m/m) in January, bringing the annual inflation rate to 7.24% from 8.17% in December. 12-month ahead inflation expectations were revised down to 6.69% from 6.81% in the previous survey, the Central Bank said on February 20.
Consumer prices are expected to rise 0.49% m/m in February and 0.61% m/m in March, the survey also showed.
The participants of the Central Bank survey slashed their current account deficit forecasts for 2015 to $40.3bn from $41.4bn while they revised the 2016 deficit forecast upwards slightly to $44.6bn from a previous $44.4bn. The government sees both this year and next year’s deficit at $46bn.
GDP growth expectations for 2015 revised to 3.5% in February versus 3.4% in the previous survey while the 2016 expectations were unchanged at 3.8%, said the Central Bank.
| Central Bank Expectations Survey | |||||
| Oct | Nov | Dec | Jan | Feb | |
| End-Year Inflation (%) | 9.16 | 9.22 | 9.02 | 6.82 | 6.72 |
| 12-Month Ahead Inflation (%) | 7.54 | 7.50 | 7.21 | 6.81 | 6.69 |
| End-Year Current Account Deficit ($ bn) | -47.8 | -46.7 | -44.6 | -41.4 | -40.3 |
| End-Year GDP Growth (%) | 3.2 | 3.2 | 3.0 | 3.4 | 3.5 |
| Source: tcmb | |||||
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