The Central Bank’s monthly survey found that end-year inflation expectations fell to 6.77% in February from 6.82% in January, still above the government’s forecast of 6.3%. Consumer prices rose 1.1% m/m in January (market consensus: 0.7% m/m) in January, bringing the annual inflation rate to 7.24% from 8.17% in December. 12-month ahead inflation expectations were revised down to 6.69% from 6.81% in the previous survey, the Central Bank said on February 20.
Consumer prices are expected to rise 0.49% m/m in February and 0.61% m/m in March, the survey also showed.
The participants of the Central Bank survey slashed their current account deficit forecasts for 2015 to $40.3bn from $41.4bn while they revised the 2016 deficit forecast upwards slightly to $44.6bn from a previous $44.4bn. The government sees both this year and next year’s deficit at $46bn.
GDP growth expectations for 2015 revised to 3.5% in February versus 3.4% in the previous survey while the 2016 expectations were unchanged at 3.8%, said the Central Bank.
|Central Bank Expectations Survey|
|End-Year Inflation (%)||9.16||9.22||9.02||6.82||6.72|
|12-Month Ahead Inflation (%)||7.54||7.50||7.21||6.81||6.69|
|End-Year Current Account Deficit ($ bn)||-47.8||-46.7||-44.6||-41.4||-40.3|
|End-Year GDP Growth (%)||3.2||3.2||3.0||3.4||3.5|
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