Turkish industrial output growth at 10-month high in March

Turkish industrial output growth at 10-month high in March
By bne IntelliNews May 8, 2017

Turkey’s calendar-adjusted industrial production index moved up by 2.8% y/y in March, marking the best growth in output recorded since May 2016, data from national statistics office TUIK also showed on May 8.

The seasonally-adjusted industrial production index has posted annual growth for six consecutive months since October.

Economists expected the adjusted index to increase by 2.5% y/y and 1.7% m/m in March. The expectation for the unadjusted index growth stood at 2.5% y/y.

The unadjusted index rose by 2.8% y/y in March after declining 1.7% y/y in the previous month.

On a calendar and seasonally adjusted basis, Turkey’s industrial production expanded 1.3% m/m in the month.

The March figures outpaced the market expectations following disappointing February results. In February, the 1% y/y growth registered in the country’s industrial output amounted to a slowdown from the 2.6% y/y rise in January. It was also the weakest seen since December when the adjusted index was up 1.6% y/y.

Turkey’s GDP growth picked up to 3.5% y/y in the fourth quarter of 2016.

Manufacturing output increased by 2.5% y/y in March after registering a 0.6% y/y rise in February. Durable consumer goods production advanced 13.1% y/y in March, accelerating from the 5.6% y/y increase in the previous month, thanks to VAT cuts for the sector. Output in the non-durable consumer goods sector contracted 0.4% y/y versus the 1.1% y/y decline in February.

Energy output was up 8.6% y/y versus 7.4% y/y in February.

Output in the capital goods manufacturing industry rose by 1.6% y/y in the month, slowing from 5.5% y/y in February while intermediate goods production increased by 1.9% y/y in March after contracting in the previous four months.

Turkey's Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) slightly declined to 51.7 in April from 52.3 in March, the highest level recorded since February 2014. In March, the PMI score registered one of the largest monthly increases in the 12-year history of the survey. The April figure can be presented as the second-highest level since December 2015 despite the slight monthly decline.

Calendar-adjusted Industrial Production Growth by main Industrial Groups (y/y, %)
  Sep Oct Nov Dec 2016 Jan Feb Mar
Total Industry -2.9 2.2 2.6 1.6 1.8 2.6 1.0 2.8
Intermediate Goods -1.4 0.4 -0.5 -3.7 0.3 -3.5 -3.3 1.9
Durable Consumer Goods -9.4 -9.5 0.0 -5.4 -3.2 2.0 5.6 13.1
Non-durable Consumer Goods -6.4 4.1 0.8 6.7 3.1 1.1 -1.1 -0.4
Energy 0.1 5.7 8.2 3.2 4.8 6.9 7.4 8.6
Capital Goods -2.1 3.8 7.3 5.0 2.1 12.9 5.5 1.6
Source: tuik