End-year inflation expectations jumped to 8.12% in April from 7.98% in March, the Central Bank’s monthly survey showed.
12-month expectations, however, fell to 7.22% this month from 7.31% in March while 24-month inflation expectations dropped to 6.58% from 6.62%. Inflation will remain well above the bank’s target of 5% this year, the governor of the Central Bank, Erdem Basci said this week. Inflation will reach its peak in May but will start to come down afterwards, according to the governor.
The participants of the Central Bank survey expect consumer prices to rise 0.76% m/m in April while CPI inflation is seen at 0.59% m/m in May.
Respondents of the survey revised their end-year current account deficit expectations down to USD 50.7bn from USD 51.9bn while GDP growth expectations for 2014 edged up to 2.7% from 2.6% but 2015 expectations remained unchanged at 3.7%. The Turkish economy’s GDP growth may be slightly below the government’s forecast of 4% this year, according to Basci who does not see any need to cut the growth forecast. The IMF, however, this month lowered its 2014 growth forecast for Turkey to 2.3% from a previous 3.5%, citing slowdown in private consumption, exchange rate adjustment and interest rate hike.
| Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | |
| End-Year Inflation (%) | 7,44 | 7,92 | 7,98 | 8,12 |
| 12-Month Ahead Inflation (%) | 7,06 | 7,21 | 7,31 | 7,22 |
| End-Year Current Account Deficit (USD bn) | -55,8 | -52,8 | -51,9 | -50,7 |
| End-Year GDP Growth (%) | 3,2 | 2,8 | 2,6 | 2,7 |
| 2015 GDP Growth (%) | 3,9 | 3,8 | 3,7 | 3,7 |
| Source: tcmb |
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