Turkish end-year inflation expectations drop to 9.02%

By bne IntelliNews December 19, 2014

End-year inflation expectations fell to 9.02% in December from 9.22% a month ago, the Central Bank’s monthly survey of economists showed on December 19.

12-month ahead inflation expectations were revised to 7.21% from 7.5% in the previous survey. The participants of the survey expect consumer prices to increase 0.31% m/m in December while their forecast for the January inflation stands at 0.8% m/m. The government’s inflation forecasts for 2014 and 2015 are 9.4% and 6.3%, respectively. If the oil prices remain at their current favourable levels inflation should come down next year.

Economists also revised their current account (CA) deficit expectations for 2014 to $44.6bn from $46.7bn. The 2015 CA deficit is now seen at $44.7bn, down from $50bn in the previous survey. The government expects the CA shortfall to shrink to $46bn (5.7% of GDP) this year from $65.1bn (7.9% of GDP). The falling oil prices and slower growth should reduce the CA deficit next year.

The Turkish economy is expected to grow 3% this year (3.2% in November survey) and 3.5% next year (unchanged from the November survey).

The IMF forecasts GDP growth of 3% for this year and next while the OECD foresees the Turkish economy expanding by 3% this year and 3.2% in 2016. The government’s GDP growth forecasts are more optimistic as 3.3% for next year and 4% for 2016.

Central Bank Expectations Survey
  Sep Oct Nov Dec
End-Year Inflation (%) 8.89 9.16 9.22 9.02
12-Month Ahead Inflation (%) 7.44 7.54 7.50 7.21
End-Year Current Account Deficit (USD bn) -48.4 -47.8 -46.7 -44.6
End-Year GDP Growth (%) 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.0
2015 GDP Growth (%) 3.7 3.6 3.5 3.5
Source: tcmb

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