Turkish end-year inflation expectations decline to 7.71% in July

By bne IntelliNews July 15, 2015

End-year inflation expectations declined from 7.77% in June to 7.71% in July, after increasing for four straight months between March and June, showed a survey by the central bank on July 15.

The participants of the central bank’s regular expectations survey revised their 12-month ahead inflation forecasts to 7.05% in July from a previous 7.00% in June, while they, on the contrary, revised up their 24-month ahead expectations to 6.69% from a previous 6.66%.

Inflation is seen at 0.12% m/m in July, down from the previous month’s 0.20% m/m while consumer price are expected to rise 0.19% m/m in August.

Consumer prices fell 0.51% m/m in June as food prices declined, data of the statistics office TUIK showed on July 3. The markets had expected headline CPI inflation to decline by 0.25% m/m. The annual inflation rate, consequently, slowed to 7.2% in June from 8.09% in May.

Finance Minister Mehmet Simsek said on July 15 that expects inflation to continue to fall this year if oil prices remain low and correction in food prices continues.

The country’s current account deficit (CA) is expected to be $38.6bn at the end of this year vs $38.8bn in the previous survey. The government projects a CA shortfall of $46bn for 2015, or 5.4% of GDP.

GDP growth expectations for 2015 declined from 3.1% in June to 3.00% in July while the participants of the survey left their growth forecasts for 2016 unchanged at 3.5%.

Turkey’s economic growth slowed from 2.6% y/y in Q4 to 2.3% y/y in the first quarter of 2015. The government’s growth target for 2015 is 4%.

Central Bank Expectations Survey                    
  Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul
End-Year Inflation (%)  9.16  9.22  9.02  6.82  6.77  6.98  7.29  7.50  7.77  7.71
12-Month Ahead Inflation (%)  7.54  7.50  7.21  6.81  6.69  6.78  6.91  6.85  7.00  7.05
End-Year Current Account Deficit ($ bn)  (47.80)  (46.70)  (44.60)  (41.40)  (40.30)  (39.40)  (37.90)  (38.30)  (38.77)  (38.62)
End-Year GDP Growth (%)  3.15  3.19  3.04  3.44  3.46  3.33  3.11  3.07  3.07  3.00
Source: tcmb                    

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