Turkish economic confidence index falls nearly 2% m/m in August

By bne IntelliNews August 28, 2015

The economic confidence index fell 1.9% m/m in August to 84.3 after rising 6% m/m in the previous month, data of the statistics office TUIK showed on August 28.

The economic confidence index is a composite index gauging consumers’ and businesses’ assessments of the economic outlook and their expectations.

According to data of TUIK, consumer confidence index dropped 3.6% m/m in August that came on top of the 2.7% m/m decline in the sub-index in July, while the real sector confidence index fell 0.1% m/m versus 1.4% m/m increase.

Other sub-indices, namely service sector confidence, retail sector confidence, and construction sector confidence, all posted declines in the month with retail sector registering the sharpest decline of 2.6% m/m.

Turkey is headed towards fresh parliamentary elections, which according to some polling agency would produce yet another hung parliament, at a time the clashes between the security forces and PKK intensify. A dangerous combination of political uncertainty and the flare up in violence is likely to continue to hurt consumer and business confidence.

Turkey's Confidence Indices
	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug
Economic	94.1	93.8	92.1	81.0	83.8	85.3	81.1	85.9	84.3
Consumer	67.7	67.7	68.1	64.4	65.4	64.3	66.4	64.7	62.4
Real Sector	108.2	106.4	104.2	101.2	102.7	104.0	101.7	103.1	103.0
Services	98.8	100.8	101.5	100.9	100.6	100.8	99.5	101.4	100.7
Retail	107.2	104.2	103.4	103.1	101.9	103.4	103.8	104.6	101.9
Construction	83.3	82.5	84.8	83.5	81.4	83.7	85.0	82.7	82.1
source: tuik

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