Turkish consumer confidence rises for second consecutive month in April.

By bne IntelliNews April 28, 2014

The consumer confidence improved for the second consecutive month in April, the statistics institute TUIK said on Monday.

The consumer confidence index, that advanced 5% m/m in March, rose another 7.9% m/m in April, TUIK’s consumer tendency survey showed. The consumer index’s April score is the highest since March 2012, when the reading was 79.3. Note that, the index score was also 78.5 in July last year. The index dropped to a four-year low (69.2) in February 2014 following the corruption scandal and uncertainties over the outcome of the March local elections.

Households’ assessments of the general economic situation improved sharply in April with the corresponding index rising 11.6% m/m. The index showing households’ assessment of the current financial situation rose 1.4% m/m after advancing 4.6% m/m in March. Consumers expect unemployment to fall in the next 12 months, the survey also showed.

The index measuring the probability of savings in the next 12 months jumped 10.4% m/m after rising 9.6% m/m in March. The index measuring the probability of buying durable goods in the next 12 month rose 4.1% m/m after posting a 1% m/m increase in the previous month. The index for probability of buying a car rose 10.7% in April after falling 0.9% m/m in March.

Despite the improvement in consumer confidence in the past two months, the Central Bank expects that private final domestic demand will lose momentum this year as loan growth continues to slow and due to the effects of the tight monetary policy stance. Households’ final consumption expenditures that correspond to around 70% of Turkey’s GDP increased 5.3% y/y in the final quarter of 2013, up from 4.7% y/y in Q3. In the whole of 2013, households’ consumption rose 4.6% y/y against the 0.5% contraction in 2012.

Consumer Confidence Sub-Indices      
  Dec-2013 Mar Apr
Consumer Confidence Index 75,0 72,7 78,5
Financial Situation Expectation of Household 92,4 91,4 94,9
General Economic Situation Expectation 101,9 95,9 107,0
Number of People Unemployed Expectation 81,8 79,5 85,4
The probability of saving 23,8 24,1 26,6
Source: tuik      

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