Turkish consumer confidence falls to 6-year low in August

By bne IntelliNews August 21, 2015

Consumer confidence dropped to the lowest in more than six years in August as households’ assessments of general economic outlook and job market deteriorated.

The index declined 3.6% m/m in August to 62.35 after falling 2.7% m/m in the previous month, data of the statistics office TUIK showed on August 21. Apparently the political uncertainty and heightened security concerns and resulting sharp depreciation of TRY weigh on consumer sentiment.

The sub-index measuring consumers’ assessments of the future economic outlook plunged 8% y/y in the month and the participants of the survey said they expected unemployment to increase over the next 12 months. Households said their current financial situation deteriorated compared to the last 12 months and they do not expect an improvement in financial situation over the next 12 months. Consumers expect inflation to rise in the next 12 months, the survey conducted jointly by TUIK and the central bank also showed.

As the coalition talks failed, Turkey is now headed towards fresh elections that is likely to be held in November. Continuing political uncertainly and violence will continue to hurt consumer sentiment.

TUIK's Consumer Confidence Sub-Indices                    
  Dec-13 Dec-14 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun July Aug
Consumer Confidence Index 75.0 67.7 67.7 68.1 64.4 65.4 64.3 66.4 64.7 62.4
Financial Situation Expectation of Household 92.4 88.8 87.8 86.8 85.4 86.2 86.2 87.9 88.2 86.2
General Economic Situation Expectation 101.9 91.8 91.5 90.9 86.3 86.1 85.5 89.5 84.3 77.6
Number of People Unemployed Expectation 81.8 67.3 67.8 69.6 65.3 66.8 65.7 68.9 63.9 63.5
The probability of saving 23.8 23.0 23.7 25.0 20.6 22.4 19.8 19.5 22.2 22.2
Source: tuik                    
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