Consumer confidence dropped to the lowest in more than six years in August as households’ assessments of general economic outlook and job market deteriorated.
The index declined 3.6% m/m in August to 62.35 after falling 2.7% m/m in the previous month, data of the statistics office TUIK showed on August 21. Apparently the political uncertainty and heightened security concerns and resulting sharp depreciation of TRY weigh on consumer sentiment.
The sub-index measuring consumers’ assessments of the future economic outlook plunged 8% y/y in the month and the participants of the survey said they expected unemployment to increase over the next 12 months. Households said their current financial situation deteriorated compared to the last 12 months and they do not expect an improvement in financial situation over the next 12 months. Consumers expect inflation to rise in the next 12 months, the survey conducted jointly by TUIK and the central bank also showed.
As the coalition talks failed, Turkey is now headed towards fresh elections that is likely to be held in November. Continuing political uncertainly and violence will continue to hurt consumer sentiment.
| TUIK's Consumer Confidence Sub-Indices | ||||||||||
| Dec-13 | Dec-14 | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | July | Aug | |
| Consumer Confidence Index | 75.0 | 67.7 | 67.7 | 68.1 | 64.4 | 65.4 | 64.3 | 66.4 | 64.7 | 62.4 |
| Financial Situation Expectation of Household | 92.4 | 88.8 | 87.8 | 86.8 | 85.4 | 86.2 | 86.2 | 87.9 | 88.2 | 86.2 |
| General Economic Situation Expectation | 101.9 | 91.8 | 91.5 | 90.9 | 86.3 | 86.1 | 85.5 | 89.5 | 84.3 | 77.6 |
| Number of People Unemployed Expectation | 81.8 | 67.3 | 67.8 | 69.6 | 65.3 | 66.8 | 65.7 | 68.9 | 63.9 | 63.5 |
| The probability of saving | 23.8 | 23.0 | 23.7 | 25.0 | 20.6 | 22.4 | 19.8 | 19.5 | 22.2 | 22.2 |
| Source: tuik |
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