Turkish business confidence keeps rising but CUR remains flat

Turkish business confidence keeps rising but CUR remains flat
By bne IntelliNews March 22, 2018

Turkey’s business sentiment index rose in March for the third consecutive month but at a lower pace of 1% m/m. It reached 111.9, the highest level seen since June last year, central bank data showed on March 22.

The confidence index rose by 2% m/m in February after jumping 5% m/m in January.

Prior to January, the index dropped for three months in a row, declining to 103.3 in December, the lowest level since January 2017.

Four of the business sentiment survey’s eight main sub-indices rose in March compared to the previous month’s readings while the sub-index measuring the general business situation remained flat at 100. Export orders for the next three months kept rising but at a lower rate of 4% m/m.

The 100-point level separates optimism from pessimism.

Meanwhile, the seasonally-adjusted business confidence index declined further by 1% m/m to 109.5 in March, the lowest level since December. The adjusted index saw 110.9 points in January, the highest level since October, and then posted declines for the next two months.

The central bank also reported on March 22 that the capacity utilisation rate (CUR) of Turkish manufacturing industry remained constant at 77.8% after declining in the previous three months in a row, moving from 79.9% in November to 77.8% in February, the lowest level seen since March 2017.

Also on March 22, the statistics institute TUIK announced that business sentiment in construction, retail and services continued to deteriorate in March.

Services confidence decreased by 1.6% m/m after declining 1.3% m/m in February while retail confidence declined by 1.9% m/m following the 1.5% m/m decline recorded in February.

Construction confidence decreased by 5.9% m/m after declining 3.7% m/m in February.

Consumer sentiment in Turkey fell again in March, dropping by 1.3% m/m to 72.3 on the index. That is the lowest level recorded since December.