Turkish business confidence deteriorates in October, manufacturing CUR hits 9-year high

Turkish business confidence deteriorates in October, manufacturing CUR hits 9-year high
By bne IntelliNews October 26, 2017

Turkey’s business confidence sentiment deteriorated in October after rising in the previous two months, central bank data showed on October 25.

The confidence index declined from 111.6 in September to 109.5 in October. This year the index has fallen as low as 97.1 in January. After that it gradually increased to a yearly high of 112.4 in June.

Seven of the business sentiment survey’s eight main sub-indices deteriorated in October compared to September’s readings. The sub-indices measuring current orders, current production volume, the general business situation and the current level of stocks as well as export orders, production volume, total orders and employment for the next three months showed deterioration compared to September.

Only the sub-index for capital investments for the next three months pointed to improvement in October compared to the previous month.

In a separate statement on October 25, the central bank also reported that the capacity utilisation rate (CUR) of Turkish manufacturing edged up from 79% in September to 79.7% in October, the highest level recorded since August 2008.

Additionally, Turkish statistics institute TUIK announced on October 25 that confidence in the construction industry recovered by 0.9% m/m in October after plunging 5.5% m/m in September while the sub-index measuring confidence in the retail industry dropped 1.9% m/m in the month following the 2.3% m/m decline recorded in the previous month.

TUIK data also showed that the services sector confidence sub-index, which declined 2% m/m in September, declined by 2.2% m/m in October.

Turkey’s economy expanded at 5.1% y/y in the second quarter of 2017 after growing 5.2% in Q1 thanks to government stimulus measures including a weighty credit guarantee fund and tax cuts brought in for certain consumer durables.

However, there has been some doubt expressed by analysts as to the reliability of the official growth figures.