Turkish business confidence continues to rise in May

By bne IntelliNews May 22, 2015

The real sector confidence index rose for a fifth straight month in May, data of the central bank showed on May 22. The headline confidence index advanced to 109 in May from 107.9 in April on businesses’ positive assessments of the general economic outlook, orders received in the past three months, and current orders. Businesses reported an increase in their inventories in May.

The sub-indices regarding the production volume, employment and export orders in the next three months, fell in May, data showed.

The central bank also reported that on a seasonally adjusted basis, the business confidence index rose from 102.7 in April to 103.9 in May.

Separately, the statistics office TUIK announced on May 22 the results of its monthly confidence survey. According to TUIK, business sentiment in service, retail and construction sectors recovered in May.

The seasonally-adjusted service sector confidence index rose 0.1% m/m in May, after decreasing 0.4% m/m in April. The sub-index measuring demand for services in the past three months rose 0.5% m/m in the month, following a 0.9% m/m decline in April.

The seasonally-adjusted retail industry confidence index that fell 1.2% m/m in April rose 1.4% m/m in May. Companies in the retail sector expect sales conditions to recover in the next three-month while businesses surveyed by TUIK reported that their current inventories declined. Retail companies reported that their sales have declined in the past three months.

Confidence in the construction sector also recovered in May. The seasonally-adjusted construction industry confidence index rose 2.9% m/m in the month, after declining a 3% m/m in April. The sub-index measuring the level of current orders posted a 3.6% m/m increase in the month, after declining 0.7% m/m in April.

Reel Sector Confidence Index                
  2 0 1 3 2014 2014 2015        
  Dec Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May
Reel Sector Confidence Index 102.1 102.7 101.2 103.2 103.4 103.5 107.9 109.0
Total amount of orders (Current situation) 91.0 88.7 87.0 86.3 83.2 83.4 89.1 91.7
Amount of stocks of finished goods (Current situation) 94.2 98.0 96.4 96.0 96.9 93.8 94.4 92.7
Volume of output (Next 3 months) 99.8 110.1 106.7 114.1 124.4 129.1 135.1 132.0
Total employment (Next 3 months) 104.4 104.7 103.4 107.2 106.0 110.6 116.5 114.1
Total amount of orders (Past 3 months) 110.3 100.8 102.1 98.0 86.8 89.3 103.4 110.6
Export orders (Next 3 months) 108.3 109.2 111.3 118.1 125.4 127.8 127.7 126.0
Fixed investment expenditure  110.4 108.4 105.8 106.7 109.7 105.3 106.5 106.1
General business situation 98.6 101.3 97.1 99.5 94.8 88.3 90.7 98.8
Source: tcmb          

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