Turkish business confidence continues to fall in November

By bne IntelliNews November 24, 2014

The business confidence index fell for a second month in a row in November, data from the Central Bank showed on November 24.

The index declined sharply to 102.7 in November from 106.9 in October, its second lowest level this year with six of the eight sub-indices posting declines. The seasonally-adjusted sentiment index dropped to 108.4 in November from 109.8 in the previous month.

The current orders index fell from 100.1 to 98, production index (next three months) declined to 110.1 from 118.5 while total orders (past three months) fell sharply to 100.8 from 115.6. The export orders index (next three months) fell 8.1% m/m to 109.2. There were two indices that rose in the month. Businesses’ assessments of the economic outlook improved as the related index advanced 5% m/m to 101.3 and the fix capital investment index rose to 108.4 from 105.2 in October.

A separate survey by the statistics institute (TUIK) showed on November 24 that business sentiment in the retail and construction industries improved in November while sentiment deteriorated in the service industry.

The seasonally-adjusted service sector confidence index was down 2% m/m in November, after declining 1.2% m/m in October. The sub-index measuring demand for services in the past three months declined 3.3% m/m in the month, after a 0.6% m/m decline in October.

The seasonally-adjusted retail industry confidence index rose 0.6% m/m that compared favourably with a 0.3% m/m rise in October. The survey also showed that retail companies expect sales conditions to improve in the next three-month, while they reported that their inventories declined in the month but sales have deteriorated in the past three months.

Confidence in the construction sector also improved in November. The seasonally-adjusted construction industry confidence index rose 1.4% m/m, after declining 2.4% m/m in October. The sub-index measuring the level of current orders posted a 0.3% m/m increase in the month, after the corresponding index declined 1.8% m/m in October.

  2 0 1 3 2014 2014 2014 2014 2014
  Dec Q1 Q2 Q3 Oct Nov
Reel Sector Confidence Index 102.1 108.6 110.7 107.6 106.9 102.7
Total amount of orders (Current situation) 91.0 89.1 91.4 89.1 91.8 88.7
Amount of stocks of finished goods (Current situation) 94.2 96.7 95.1 96.4 100.1 98.0
Volume of output (Next 3 months) 99.8 135.0 126.2 124.1 118.5 110.1
Total employment (Next 3 months) 104.4 113.7 117.6 111.2 108.8 104.7
Total amount of orders (Past 3 months) 110.3 104.4 118.4 106.9 115.6 100.8
Export orders (Next 3 months) 108.3 133.9 124.1 125.0 118.8 109.2
Fixed investment expenditure  110.4 105.4 108.0 106.9 105.2 108.4
General business situation 98.6 90.8 104.9 100.8 96.6 101.3
Source: tcmb  

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