Turkey’s November foreign trade deficit down 0.6% y/y.

By bne IntelliNews December 31, 2013

Turkey’s foreign trade gap narrowed 0.6% y/y to USD 7.15bn in November.

November deficit came as a surprise as the markets had expected a foreign trade deficit of USD 7.7bn (Reuters poll). Foreign trade deficit rose by 16.8% y/y to USD 89.8bn in January-November, data of the statistics institute (TUIK) also showed.

Exports, which had fallen 8.5% y/y in October, rose 3.6% y/y to USD 14.25bn while the rate of import growth slowed to 2.2% y/y to USD 21.4bn in November from 32.5% y/y in the previous month.

On a seasonally & calendar adjusted basis exports rose by 4% m/m while imports fell 0.9% m/m. The calendar adjusted exports and imports rose 3.4% y/y and 6% y/y, respectively in November.

Consumer goods imports (13% share in total) increased 9.8% y/y and intermediate goods imports (72% share in total imports) registered a 1% y/y increase which suggests a slowdown in economic activity.

Turkey’s exports to the EU rose 8.7% y/y to USD 6.29bn and the Block’s share in Turkey’s exports increased to 44.1% in November from 42% a year ago. Exports to the Middle East (a 22.9% share in total) fell 3.8% y/y in the month while shipments to the Americas (a 5.1% in total) declined 7.5% y/y.

Turkey’s energy imports dropped 10.4% y/y to USD 4.78bn in November and the country’s energy import bill stood at USD 50.7bn in the first eleven months of the year, representing a 7.8% y/y decline. Precious metals imports (gold), which has been one of the main drivers of Turkey’s current account deficit, soared 116.1% y/y to USD 996mn while their exports shrank 61.7% y/y to USD 461mn.

If consumer loan growth remains strong this will lead to wider current account deficit and the weakness in TRY will also be decisive going forward. TUIK data showed that consumer goods imports rose 9.8% y/y in November versus 8.4% y/y increase in October.

Related Articles

Professor says climate change putting Turkey at risk of becoming a “disease-prone desert”

Turkey is at risk of becoming a “disease-prone desert” with water resources and forests disappearing, Hurriyet Daily News reported Professor Mikdat Kadioglu from Istanbul Technical University’s ... more

Turkey’s lira and shares start moving sideways as significance of early elections is debated

The strongly positive initial reaction given by markets to April 18’s surprise announcement of snap elections in ... more

Turkish lira’s chronic weakness credit negative for Turkey’s sovereign rating says Moody’s

The chronic weakness of the Turkish lira (TRY) is credit negative for Turkey’s sovereign debt rating and poses ... more

Dismiss