The Turkish economy is expected to post a current account deficit of $3.6bn in May while the end-year deficit is seen at $36.5bn, according to a Reuters poll of economists.
The current account shortfall narrowed 31% y/y to $3.41bn in April, above the market consensus forecast of $3bn. The deficit fell by 13% y/y to $14.5bn in January-April, while the 12-month rolling current account deficit increased to $44.3bn in April from $45.8bn in March.
The deficit was $3.65bn in May 2014.
The government expects the current account deficit to be $46bn (or 5.4% of GDP) this year and $49.2bn (5.4% of GDP) next year.
Falling oil prices, if sustained, may have a positive effect on the country’s current account deficit. Turkey imports most of its energy needs. Turkey’s energy import bill was $17.3bn in January-May, a 24.3% decline from a year, according to the latest foreign trade data of the statistics office TUIK.
|Turkey's Balance of Payments (January-April)|
|Goods, Services and Primary Income||(16,999)||(14,744)||-13%|
|Goods and Services||(13,706)||(10,498)||-23%|
|foreign trade balance||(17,629)||(14,518)||-18%|
|Net acquisition of financial assets||1,428||1,407||-1%|
|Net incurrence of liabilities||5,204||4,028||-23%|
|Net Portfolio Investment||(1,727)||832||-|
|Net acquisition of financial assets||934||1,130||21%|
|Net incurrence of liabilities||2,661||298||-89%|
|NET ERRORS AND OMISSIONS||6,292||6,976||11%|
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