The Turkish economy is expected to post a current account deficit of $3.6bn in May while the end-year deficit is seen at $36.5bn, according to a Reuters poll of economists.
The current account shortfall narrowed 31% y/y to $3.41bn in April, above the market consensus forecast of $3bn. The deficit fell by 13% y/y to $14.5bn in January-April, while the 12-month rolling current account deficit increased to $44.3bn in April from $45.8bn in March.
The deficit was $3.65bn in May 2014.
The government expects the current account deficit to be $46bn (or 5.4% of GDP) this year and $49.2bn (5.4% of GDP) next year.
Falling oil prices, if sustained, may have a positive effect on the country’s current account deficit. Turkey imports most of its energy needs. Turkey’s energy import bill was $17.3bn in January-May, a 24.3% decline from a year, according to the latest foreign trade data of the statistics office TUIK.
Turkey's Balance of Payments (January-April) | |||
($ mn) | 2014 | 2015 | y/y |
CURRENT ACCOUNT | (16,716) | (14,469) | -13% |
Goods, Services and Primary Income | (16,999) | (14,744) | -13% |
Goods and Services | (13,706) | (10,498) | -23% |
foreign trade balance | (17,629) | (14,518) | -18% |
exports | 57,229 | 53,214 | -7% |
imports | 74,858 | 67,732 | -10% |
CAPITAL ACCOUNT | (21) | (2) | -90% |
FINANCIAL ACCOUNT | (10,445) | (7,495) | -28% |
Net FDI | (3,776) | (2,621) | -31% |
Net acquisition of financial assets | 1,428 | 1,407 | -1% |
Net incurrence of liabilities | 5,204 | 4,028 | -23% |
Net Portfolio Investment | (1,727) | 832 | - |
Net acquisition of financial assets | 934 | 1,130 | 21% |
Net incurrence of liabilities | 2,661 | 298 | -89% |
NET ERRORS AND OMISSIONS | 6,292 | 6,976 | 11% |
Source: tcmb |
Turkey, Iraq, Qatar and UAE have inked a preliminary agreement to cooperate on the Development Road project, which envisages the transit of goods received at an Iraqi commodities port facilty in ... more
Despite his AKP party’s defeat in the weekend’s local elections, Turkish President ... more
Turkish footwear manufacturers are stepping up their investments in Uzbekistan’s leather and footwear industries, according to local reports. A $1mn investment in the manufacture of leather, ... more