The Turkish economy is expected to post a current account deficit of $3.6bn in May while the end-year deficit is seen at $36.5bn, according to a Reuters poll of economists.
The current account shortfall narrowed 31% y/y to $3.41bn in April, above the market consensus forecast of $3bn. The deficit fell by 13% y/y to $14.5bn in January-April, while the 12-month rolling current account deficit increased to $44.3bn in April from $45.8bn in March.
The deficit was $3.65bn in May 2014.
The government expects the current account deficit to be $46bn (or 5.4% of GDP) this year and $49.2bn (5.4% of GDP) next year.
Falling oil prices, if sustained, may have a positive effect on the country’s current account deficit. Turkey imports most of its energy needs. Turkey’s energy import bill was $17.3bn in January-May, a 24.3% decline from a year, according to the latest foreign trade data of the statistics office TUIK.
| Turkey's Balance of Payments (January-April) | |||
| ($ mn) | 2014 | 2015 | y/y |
| CURRENT ACCOUNT | (16,716) | (14,469) | -13% |
| Goods, Services and Primary Income | (16,999) | (14,744) | -13% |
| Goods and Services | (13,706) | (10,498) | -23% |
| foreign trade balance | (17,629) | (14,518) | -18% |
| exports | 57,229 | 53,214 | -7% |
| imports | 74,858 | 67,732 | -10% |
| CAPITAL ACCOUNT | (21) | (2) | -90% |
| FINANCIAL ACCOUNT | (10,445) | (7,495) | -28% |
| Net FDI | (3,776) | (2,621) | -31% |
| Net acquisition of financial assets | 1,428 | 1,407 | -1% |
| Net incurrence of liabilities | 5,204 | 4,028 | -23% |
| Net Portfolio Investment | (1,727) | 832 | - |
| Net acquisition of financial assets | 934 | 1,130 | 21% |
| Net incurrence of liabilities | 2,661 | 298 | -89% |
| NET ERRORS AND OMISSIONS | 6,292 | 6,976 | 11% |
| Source: tcmb | |||
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