The Turkish economy is expected to post a current account deficit of $3.6bn in May while the end-year deficit is seen at $36.5bn, according to a Reuters poll of economists.
The current account shortfall narrowed 31% y/y to $3.41bn in April, above the market consensus forecast of $3bn. The deficit fell by 13% y/y to $14.5bn in January-April, while the 12-month rolling current account deficit increased to $44.3bn in April from $45.8bn in March.
The deficit was $3.65bn in May 2014.
The government expects the current account deficit to be $46bn (or 5.4% of GDP) this year and $49.2bn (5.4% of GDP) next year.
Falling oil prices, if sustained, may have a positive effect on the country’s current account deficit. Turkey imports most of its energy needs. Turkey’s energy import bill was $17.3bn in January-May, a 24.3% decline from a year, according to the latest foreign trade data of the statistics office TUIK.
| Turkey's Balance of Payments (January-April) | |||
| ($ mn) | 2014 | 2015 | y/y |
| CURRENT ACCOUNT | (16,716) | (14,469) | -13% |
| Goods, Services and Primary Income | (16,999) | (14,744) | -13% |
| Goods and Services | (13,706) | (10,498) | -23% |
| foreign trade balance | (17,629) | (14,518) | -18% |
| exports | 57,229 | 53,214 | -7% |
| imports | 74,858 | 67,732 | -10% |
| CAPITAL ACCOUNT | (21) | (2) | -90% |
| FINANCIAL ACCOUNT | (10,445) | (7,495) | -28% |
| Net FDI | (3,776) | (2,621) | -31% |
| Net acquisition of financial assets | 1,428 | 1,407 | -1% |
| Net incurrence of liabilities | 5,204 | 4,028 | -23% |
| Net Portfolio Investment | (1,727) | 832 | - |
| Net acquisition of financial assets | 934 | 1,130 | 21% |
| Net incurrence of liabilities | 2,661 | 298 | -89% |
| NET ERRORS AND OMISSIONS | 6,292 | 6,976 | 11% |
| Source: tcmb | |||
Related Articles
Fintech Freedom Holding aims to make France key entry point into EU with €500mn investment
A French banking licence would open the way to a new phase in the international expansion of Nasdaq-listed fintech group Freedom Holding Corp. That’s the expectation of Freedom, a company ... more
Iran's Araghchi arrives in Turkey for talks on US military build-up as Ankara looks to act as mediator
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi arrived in Istanbul on January 30 for meetings with Turkish officials to discuss regional issues amid what he described as serious challenges posed by US ... more
TPAO and ExxonMobil sign deal for offshore exploration
The Turkish Petroleum Corp. (TPAO) has formalised a strategic partnership with Esso Exploration International, a subsidiary of ExxonMobil, marking a significant escalation in Türkiye’s ambitions ... more