Turkey's January economic confidence level worst for nearly eight years

By bne IntelliNews January 30, 2017

Confidence in the Turkish economy has fallen to its lowest point since April 2009, a survey by the country’s national statistics office TUIK showed on January 30.

The survey, however, did not reflect the impact of the double whammy of downgrades issued on January 27 by Fitch Ratings and Standard & Poor’s rating agencies.

The first market reaction to the downgrades appeared rather muted. The lira strengthened 0.18% to trade at 3.8632 per dollar while the main stock exchange, the BIST-100, was up 0.94% as of mid-morning Istanbul time. Investors had been pricing in the widely-anticipated Fitch downgrade, which explains the markets’ response.

Investors will continue to keep a close eye on the steps the country’s central bank is taking to support the currency and the run-up to April’s planned referendum on a constitutional package that lays the ground for a strong executive presidential system.

The lira has fallen more than 9% against the greenback since the start of the year.

The headline economic sentiment index slipped 3.9% m/m to 85.7 points in the month on weaker business confidence, the survey showed.

The business confidence index was down 3% m/m, sentiment in the services sector fell 6.2%, and confidence in the retail industry declined by 0.2% m/m in January. TUIK also reported that construction sector confidence, another major component of the economic confidence index, was down 1.7% m/m in the month.

Consumer confidence, however, increased by 5.6% m/m in January, according to the survey.

Turkey's Confidence Indices
  Dec-14 Dec-15 Apr-16 May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan-17
Economic 94.9 100.8 73.5 82.3 83.3 95.7 72.7 87.8 80.6 86.6 89.2 85.7
Consumer 67.7 73.6 68.5 68.8 69.4 67.0 74.4 74.3 74.0 68.9 63.4 66.9
Real Sector 108.0 108.8 105.7 105.7 104.3 106.3 103.0 107.1 103.8 107.6 103.6 100.5
Services 98.8 99.0 89.9 94.5 95.8 100.9 91.1 96.2 94.5 96.8 93.3 87.5
Retail 105.4 104.9 104.0 103.8 99.7 103.6 101.2 98.0 96.2 96.0 96.1 95.9
Construction 82.7 85.1 81.5 79.2 80.9 83.0 79.4 82.0 81.3 75.8 76.1 74.8
source: tuik

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