Turkey's January economic confidence level worst for nearly eight years

By bne IntelliNews January 30, 2017

Confidence in the Turkish economy has fallen to its lowest point since April 2009, a survey by the country’s national statistics office TUIK showed on January 30.

The survey, however, did not reflect the impact of the double whammy of downgrades issued on January 27 by Fitch Ratings and Standard & Poor’s rating agencies.

The first market reaction to the downgrades appeared rather muted. The lira strengthened 0.18% to trade at 3.8632 per dollar while the main stock exchange, the BIST-100, was up 0.94% as of mid-morning Istanbul time. Investors had been pricing in the widely-anticipated Fitch downgrade, which explains the markets’ response.

Investors will continue to keep a close eye on the steps the country’s central bank is taking to support the currency and the run-up to April’s planned referendum on a constitutional package that lays the ground for a strong executive presidential system.

The lira has fallen more than 9% against the greenback since the start of the year.

The headline economic sentiment index slipped 3.9% m/m to 85.7 points in the month on weaker business confidence, the survey showed.

The business confidence index was down 3% m/m, sentiment in the services sector fell 6.2%, and confidence in the retail industry declined by 0.2% m/m in January. TUIK also reported that construction sector confidence, another major component of the economic confidence index, was down 1.7% m/m in the month.

Consumer confidence, however, increased by 5.6% m/m in January, according to the survey.

Turkey's Confidence Indices
  Dec-14 Dec-15 Apr-16 May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan-17
Economic 94.9 100.8 73.5 82.3 83.3 95.7 72.7 87.8 80.6 86.6 89.2 85.7
Consumer 67.7 73.6 68.5 68.8 69.4 67.0 74.4 74.3 74.0 68.9 63.4 66.9
Real Sector 108.0 108.8 105.7 105.7 104.3 106.3 103.0 107.1 103.8 107.6 103.6 100.5
Services 98.8 99.0 89.9 94.5 95.8 100.9 91.1 96.2 94.5 96.8 93.3 87.5
Retail 105.4 104.9 104.0 103.8 99.7 103.6 101.2 98.0 96.2 96.0 96.1 95.9
Construction 82.7 85.1 81.5 79.2 80.9 83.0 79.4 82.0 81.3 75.8 76.1 74.8
source: tuik

Related Articles

Turkey postpones plan to sell firms seized after coup attempt

Turkey has put on hold its plan to sell almost 600 companies worth about $10bn seized in the aftermath of the failed military coup, people familiar with the matter told Bloomberg on March 23. The ... more

Turkey to maintain EU economic relations but review political ties, says Erdogan

Turkey will maintain its commercial ties with the European Union but will review its political and administrative ties with the bloc after the April 16 referendum, Turkish President Recep Tayyip ... more

Turkey easily tops table for Twitter content removal requests

Turkey accounted for more than half of all content removal requests received worldwide by Twitter during the second half of 2016, according to the social media company’s ... more

Register here to continue reading this article and 2 more for free or purchase 12 months full website access including the bne Magazine for just $119/year.

Already a subscriber or registered - click here to recover access.

If you a IntelliNews Pro user - click here to login.

Thank you. Please complete your registration by confirming your email address.
A confirmation email has been sent to the email address you provided.

To continue viewing our content you need to complete the registration process.

Please look for an email that was sent to with the subject line "Confirmation bne IntelliNews access". This email will have instructions on how to complete registration process. Please check in your "Junk" folder in case this communication was misdirected in your email system.

Already a subscriber or registered - click here to recover access.

If you a IntelliNews Pro user - click here to login.

If you have any questions please contact us at sales@intellinews.com

Subscribe to bne IntelliNews website and magazine

Subscribe to bne IntelliNews website and monthly magazine, the leading source of business, economic and financial news and commentary in emerging markets.

Your subscription includes:
  • Full access to the bne content daily news and features on the website
  • Newsletters direct to your mailbox
  • Print and digital subscription to the monthly bne magazine
  • Digital subscription to the weekly bne newspaper

Already a subscriber or registered - click here to recover access.

If you a IntelliNews Pro user - click here to login.

bne IntelliNews
$119 per year

All prices are in US dollars net of applicable taxes.

If you have any questions please contact us at sales@intellinews.com

Register for free to read bne IntelliNews Magazine. You'll receive a free digital subscription.

Already a subscriber or registered - click here to recover access.

If you a IntelliNews Pro user - click here to login.

Thank you. Please complete your registration by confirming your email address.
A confirmation email has been sent to the email address you provided.

IntelliNews Pro offers daily news updates delivered to your inbox and in-depth data reports.
Get the emerging markets newswire that financial professionals trust.

"No day starts for my team without IntelliNews Pro" — UBS

Thank-you for requesting an IntelliNews Pro trial. Our team will be in contact with you shortly.

Dismiss