Turkey’s industrial production rose only by 0.3% y/y in July on a calendar adjusted basis, data of the statistics office TUIK showed on September 8, adding to concerns over the health of the country’s $800mn economy. The markets had expected a 3.4% y/y increase in industrial output that rose 4.9% y/y in June.

Industrial production is a good indicator of overall economic activity and the July data is not promising.  The 0.3% y/y rise recorded in industrial output in July is the lowest rate of increase since February. The only month industrial production contracted this year was January when output fell 2.1% y/y on a calendar adjusted basis. The disappointing July data is likely to weigh on the lira and Turkish stocks that have already been under pressure because of heightened political uncertainty ahead of the November elections and security concerns. Recent macroeconomic data have not pointed to a significant recovery in economic activity. PMI fell from 50.1 in July to 49.3 in August, signaling an overall deterioration in business conditions at manufacturers. The real sector confidence index declined from 105.4 in July to 103.7 in August. Exports fell for the eighth month in a row in August.

Intermediate goods output increased by 0.2% y/y in July after rising 3.4% y/y in June, while durable consumer goods industry saw a 2.5% y/y decline in output showed data of TUIK.. Capital goods sector’s production fell by 1.7% y/y in the month, but the output increase in energy sector accelerated to 3.3% y/y from 2% y/y in June.

Industrial production rose by 1.5% y/y on an unadjusted basis in July versus the market consensus forecast of a 5.3% y/y.

Data from the statistics office also showed that on a seasonally and calendar adjusted basis industrial production declined 1.5% m/m versus 2% m/m growth recorded in June.

Leading indicators for July and August suggest that the industrial production might moderate in the second half of the year, the central bank said in the minutes of the last monetary policy committee meeting.