Turkey’s economic confidence index rises 3.6% m/m in April

By bne IntelliNews April 28, 2015

The economic confidence index rose 3.6% m/m in April, marking the first recovery since the beginning of this year, showed data of the statistics institute TUIK on April 28. The index fell 0.2% m/m in January, was down 2.2% m/m in February, and plunged 14.4% m/m in March.

The headline confidence index increased to 79.66 in April, driven by improvements in consumer and real sector (manufacturing) confidence. The sub-index measuring consumer confidence rose 1.5% m/m in the month and the rise in manufacturing confidence was also 1.5% m/m. However, service sector, retail industry and construction sector confidence fell 0.5% m/m, 1.2% m/m, and 2.7% m/m, respectively.

The PMI index pointed to a weak economic activity in the first quarter of 2015, falling from 49.6 in February to 48.0 in March, the lowest reading since April 2009. But, the capacity utilisation, consumer confidence and business confidence have recovered in the past two months. The capacity utilisation rate rose to 74.1% in April after declining in the previous three months. Consumer confidence rose in April, recovering from a six-year low in March while the real sector confidence index rose to 107.9 in April from 103.5 in March. Given the sharp decline in the lira, uncertainties over the outcome of the June parliamentary elections, and the new economic management team after the elections, the improvement in the business, consumer and overall economic confidence indices are rather surprising.

Turkey's Confidence Indices  
  Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr
Economic 91.9 91.8 89.8 76.9 79.7
Consumer 67.7 67.7 68.1 64.4 65.4
Real Sector 108.2 106.4 104.2 101.2 102.7
Services 98.9 101.0 101.8 101.0 100.5
Retail 107.2 104.3 103.5 103.0 101.8
Construction 83.3 82.5 84.8 83.4 81.2
source: tuik          

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