Turkey’s economic confidence index down 0.4% m/m in January

By bne IntelliNews January 29, 2015

The statistics institute TUIK on January 29 released for the first time the economic confidence index, a monthly composite indicator, encapsulating the evaluations, expectations and tendencies of both consumers and producers on general economic situation.

Accordingly, the economic confidence index fell 0.4% m/m in January, after rising 4% m/m in the previous month, TUIK said, adding that the decline in the index stemmed from the decreases in consumer, manufacturing industry (real sector), retail trade and construction confidence indices. The consumer confidence sub-index was down 0.1%, manufacturing index dropped 1.5%, retail sector confidence fell 2.7% and construction index declined 1% while the services sector confidence rose 2.1% m/m.

Turkey’s GDP growth eased to 1.7% y/y in the third quarter of 2014 from 2.2% in the second quarter and 4.8% in the first. The government’s GDP growth forecasts for 2014 and 2015 stand at 3.3% and 4%, respectively.

Central Bank governor Erdem Basci, who has been under under pressure from the government to slash interest rates to bolster tepid economic growth ahead of the general elections later this year, this week signalled that the Central Bank could call an early Monetary Policy Committee meeting on February 4 to review interest rates. The Bank may convene an extraordinary meeting to cut interest rates as early as next week if annual inflation declines more than 1pp in January to about 7%, Basci said.

Turkey's Confidence Indices
  Index Value m/m, %
  Dec Jan Dec Jan
Economic 88.76 88.39 4.0 -0.4
Consumer 67.75 67.71 -1.3 -0.1
Real Sector 108.40 106.80 0.2 -1.5
Services 98.36 100.41 1.0 2.1
Retail 107.16 104.23 1.9 -2.7
Construction 83.24 82.42 0.3 -1.0
source: tuik        

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