Turkey’s economic confidence index dives 9% m/m to lowest level since 2009

Turkey’s economic confidence index dives 9% m/m to lowest level since 2009
By bne IntelliNews August 30, 2018

Turkey’s economic confidence index declined by 9% m/m to 83.9 in August, the lowest level seen since March 2009, data from national statistics office TUIK showed on August 29.

The 100-mark separates optimism from pessimism. August's reading meant that the index was recorded as in pessimistic territory for the fifth consecutive month.

Prior to that phase, the index jumped by 10% m/m to 104.9 points in January, the highest level registered since August last year.

“Remarkable and simply dreadful print. Clear evidence now of a very hard landing in Turkey. Only question is I think how deep the recession will be,” Timothy Ash of Bluebay Asset Management said in an e-mailed comment, adding: “Totally self-inflicted. Policy makers failed to heed the clarion calls of this for the past year, and then their policy response has just lacked credibility - too little, too late, and not orthodox enough.”

“Overall, there’s no getting away from the fact that the Turkish economy is experiencing a deep downturn,” Jason Tuvey of Capital Economics said in a research note on economic activity indicators entitled “Turkey entering a steep recession”.

All the sub-indices measuring business confidence posted sharp declines in August.

The seasonally-adjusted business confidence index declined further by 5.1% m/m to 96.3 in the month. The unadjusted business sentiment index declined for a fifth consecutive month, taking it down to 96.4 and marking the lowest level recorded since January 2014, central bank data showed on August 27.

The seasonally-adjusted services confidence index decreased by 4.2% m/m to 88; the retail confidence index declined by 4% m/m to 93.4 and the construction confidence index decreased by as much as 10.7% m/m to 68.8.

A sharp decline in Turkey's consumer sentiment reading measured at 7% m/m was seen in August. The index figure of 68.3 is the lowest level recorded since October last year, according to TUIK data released on August 17.

 

 

 

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