Turkey’s calendar adjusted industrial production rises 1% y/y in February

By bne IntelliNews April 8, 2015

On a calendar adjusted basis, industrial production rose 1% y/y in February, after falling 2.1% y/y in the previous month, data of the statistics institute TUIK showed on April 8. The market had expected the calendar adjusted output index to fall 0.45% y/y in the month.

On a calendar adjusted basis, manufacturing output rose 0.7% y/y vs 2.2% y/y decline in the previous month while durable consumer goods production increased 3.9% after a weak 0.6% y/y increase in the previous month. Intermediate goods production that contracted 8.1% in January fell again in the month, declining 4.5% y/y. Energy output was up 2.7% y/y after rising 1.8% y/y in January and capital goods manufacturing industry’s production rose 8.5% y/y in February that followed the 7.5% y/y rise in the previous month.

On a calendar & seasonally adjusted basis, Turkey’s industrial production rose 1.7% m/m in the month vs the 1.2% m/m decline recorded in January and against the 0.32% m/m decline the market had predicted.

The unadjusted industrial production index, which fell 2.2% y/y in January, rose 1% y/y in February, data also showed. Analysts had forecast a moderate 0.36% y/y increase in the unadjusted index of industrial production.

The February industrial production data do not provide enough input yet to predict a strong recovery in economic activity. On the contrary, some other recent macroeconomic indicators have pointed to a continuing weakness. Turkish manufacturing PMI survey data signalled a steepening downturn in the goods-producing sector in March. The headline HSBC Turkey Manufacturing PMI fell from 49.6 in February to 48.0 in March, the lowest reading since April 2009. Output, new orders and new export orders all fell at sharper rates during the month. The economic confidence index plunged 15.4% m/m in March to 74.85, the index’s lowest level on record. The Turkish manufacturing capacity utilisation rate dropped for the third consecutive month, declining from 72.8% in February to 72.4% in March. Also in March, consumer confidence hit a six-year low. The government recently unveiled a TRY7.5bn (€2.7bn) economic package to boost Turkey’s $800bn flagging economy through several measures spanning from insurance premium support to employers to certain tax reliefs. The Turkish economy grew by 2.6% y/y in Q4/2014, above the 1.9% y/y expansion in the previous quarter. But Turkey’s GDP growth slowed to 2.9% last year from 4.2% in 2013. The government forecasts a 4% economic growth this year but analysts think this is a difficult target to achieve. Participants of the central bank’s monthly expectations survey cut their GDP growth expectations for 2015 to 3.3% in March from 3.5% in the previous survey.

Industrial Production by main Industrial Groups (February)    
(%) Calendar Adjusted Seasonally & Calendar Adjusted
  (y/y) (m/m)
Total Industry 1.0 1.7
Intermediate Goods -4.5 0.9
Durable Consumer Goods 3.9 6.6
Non-durable Consumer Goods 2.5 2.3
Energy 2.7 2.2
Capital Goods 8.5 1.0
Source: tuik

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