Turkey’s calendar adjusted industrial output index up 7.3% y/y in January.

By bne IntelliNews March 10, 2014

The calendar adjusted industrial production index rose 7.3% y/y in January after rising 7% y/y in December, data of the statistics institute showed on Monday.

In unadjusted terms, industrial output, which grew 6.9% y/y in December, rose by a strong 7.2% y/y in the first month of the year, beating the market consensus forecast of a 4% increase. Manufacturing output increased 7.7% y/y in January after rising 7.2% y/y in December.

On a calendar & seasonally adjusted basis, industrial production increased 1.1% m/m versus the 0.2% m/m rise in the previous month.

On a calendar-adjusted basis, manufacturing output rose 7.8% y/y, the increase in intermediate goods production quickened to 9.4% y/y in January from 6.8% y/y in the previous month while durable consumer goods output, which rose 11.2% y/y in December, recorded a 2.8% y/y expansion. Energy production increased 2.5% y/y in January after rising 5.1% y/y in December. Capital goods manufacturing output expansion slowed to 7.4% y/y from 10.4% y/y, TUIK data also showed.

January data surprised on the upside as the markets had expected a sharp correction in industrial output. Latest PMI data suggest manufacturing activity remained strong in February. The headline HSBC Turkey Manufacturing PMI rose to 53.4 in February from 52.7 in January, Markit said last week. However, on the business and consumer confidence side the picture is mixed. TUIK said its consumer confidence index fell 4.3% m/m to 69.2 in February and the business channel CBNC-e’s own consumer confidence index fell 7.8% m/m in February, hitting a five-year low. But, the real sector confidence index, compiled by the Central Bank, rose to 104.6 in February from 101.4 in the previous month.

Industrial Production by main Industrial Groups (December)      
(%) Unadjusted Calendar Adjusted Seasonally & Calendar Adjusted
  (y/y) (y/y) (m/m)
Total Industry 7.2 7.3 1.1
Intermediate Goods 9.3 9.4 3.4
Durable Consumer Goods 2.8 2.8 -3.5
Non-durable Consumer Goods 8.0 8.1 1.9
Energy 2.5 2.5 -1.1
Capital Goods 7.4 7.4 -1.7
Source: tuik

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