Turkey’s current account deficit declined by 31% y/y to $3.41bn in April, above the market consensus forecast of $3bn, data of the central bank showed on June 11.
Foreign trade deficit increased by 40% y/y to $3.33bn with exports falling 0.2% y/y and imports declining 11% y/y.
The central bank reported $570mn FDI inflows into the country, representing a 40% y/y decline, while the portfolio inflow also declined by 75% y/y to $1.15bn in the month which followed an outflow of $2.24bn in March and an outflow of $437mn in February. Inflows into Turkey’s equity market increased by 13% y/y to $652mn in April after $580mn outflow in the previous month and an outflow of $503mn in February. There was an outflow of $1bn from the government debt securities in April after the central bank reported an inflow of $444mn in the previous month.
The central bank also reported inflow of $2.89bn through “the net error and omission” item which was significantly high compared to the $258mn of inflows in March. The inflows under this item in the first four months of the year amounted to $6.98bn vs $6.29bn a year ago.
There was a net outflow of $29mn under banks borrowing item through bond issuances in international markets while other sectors borrowed $46mn through bond issuances in international markets on net basis, said the central bank.
Turkey’s current account deficit fell by 13% y/y to $14.5bn in January-April. The 12-month rolling current account deficit increased to $44.3bn in April from $45.8bn in March.
The government forecasts the current account deficit to be $46bn (or 5.4% of GDP) this year and $49.2bn (5.4% of GDP) next year. The OECD expects Turkey’s current account deficit to decline to 5.8% of GDP this year from 7.9% in 2014 while it projects the current account deficit to amount to 4.9% of GDP next year. According to the Central Bank’s May expectations survey, the country’s current account deficit is expected to be $38.3bn at the end of 2015 whereas the previous estimate in April was $37.9bn.
Turkey's Balance of Payments (January-April) |
|||
($ mn) |
2014 |
2015 |
y/y |
CURRENT ACCOUNT |
(16,716) |
(14,469) |
-13% |
Goods, Services and Primary Income |
(16,999) |
(14,744) |
-13% |
Goods and Services |
(13,706) |
(10,498) |
-23% |
foreign trade balance |
(17,629) |
(14,518) |
-18% |
exports |
57,229 |
53,214 |
-7% |
imports |
74,858 |
67,732 |
-10% |
CAPITAL ACCOUNT |
(21) |
(2) |
-90% |
FINANCIAL ACCOUNT |
(10,445) |
(7,495) |
-28% |
Net FDI |
(3,776) |
(2,621) |
-31% |
Net acquisition of financial assets |
1,428 |
1,407 |
-1% |
Net incurrence of liabilities |
5,204 |
4,028 |
-23% |
Net Portfolio Investment |
(1,727) |
832 |
- |
Net acquisition of financial assets |
934 |
1,130 |
21% |
Net incurrence of liabilities |
2,661 |
298 |
-89% |
NET ERRORS AND OMISSIONS |
6,292 |
6,976 |
11% |
Source: tcmb |
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